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Marek Zidlicky: Worst Defenseman?

Marek Zidlicky seems to be having the kind of season that Martin Skoula had a couple years back and part of last season. It's not necessarily that he makes more mistakes than anyone else. It's that, for some reason, every time he makes a glaring mistake, the other team scores.


Marek Zidlicky

#3 / Defenseman / Minnesota Wild

5-11

190

Feb 03, 1977



GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2008 - Marek Zidlicky 73 11 29 40 -14 72 10 0 3 0 143 7.7


Look at that -14. Now, without a frame of reference, you really don't know how bad that is. He has the lowest +/- of all Wild defensemen (Skoula is a -11, Burns a -7 and shockingly Bergeron is tops with a +2). He's third worst on the team (ahead of Veilleux and Sheppard). But does that tell the whole story?

In order to truly understand a player's effectiveness, we need to go beyond the +/- and get into the Corsi rating. I'll steal an explanation from Hockey Numbers:

"Corsi number is the number of shots directed towards the net while the player is on the ice. The number can be broken down into whose net the shots are directed towards (their own net (-) and their opponent's net (+)) similar to the plus minus statistic. The hope of course is that the Corsi plus minus would correlate well with the regular plus minus, but because the numbers will be 16x larger than plus minus numbers they'll be about 4x more accurate than the plus minus numbers."

In addition to the Corsi rating, Behind the Net has created their own rating for +/-, which is relative to the rest of the team, depending upon whether a player is on the ice or not.

Hockey's a team game; a good two-way player on a bad team will have a lower +/- than most players on a good team like Detroit or Nashville. That's obviously not an accurate reflection of their performance because they'd have a much higher +/- over the course of a season with a good team. Plus/minus relative to the rest of the team's performance is a more accurate reflection of a player's ability to score and prevent goals.

Ready to be shocked? Here are the advanced ratings for the Wild defensemen

Player
Corsi Rating
+/- relative to team
Marc-Andre Bergeron 6.6 0.48
Marek Zidlicky
2.9 -0.22
Kurtis Foster
0.8 0.37
Brent Burns -3.4 -0.01
Martin Skoula -8.2 -0.60
Kim Johnsson -8.3 0.18
John Scott -11.8 -0.47
Nick Schultz -14.3 -0.06

 

So, from these evaluations, would you argue that Nick Schultz is the worst defenseman on the team, or that Marc-Andre Bergeron is the best? No. Of course you wouldn't. Clearly Corsi doesn't tell the whole story. Nor does +/- relative to team, nor even the goals against/60 minutes. So what does? This is why one has to take all statistics with a grain of salt. Especially defensive stats.

All too often in hockey, stats are heavily weighted toward offensive prowess. Look at the numbers for Bergeron and Schultz. Nick Schultz and Kim Johnsson put way too many minutes against the top lines for it not to have negatively affected their +/-, Corsi or pretty much any other defensive stat. You can see how the +/- relative to team really helps Johnsson and Schultz and punishes Skoula and Zidlicky, which makes sense. But Bergeron is still sitting out there as an outlier. Has he had a much better season than we originally thought?

I prefer to combine my stats with eyewitness review of the game from people who know hockey. Like this beauty from Russo's recap today.

But as often is the case, it was Mr. Zidlicky who caused the 2-on-1 by again carelessly stepping up in the neutral zone like he’s done so many times this season (most recent on Zach Parise in New Jersey, resulting in Brian Gionta’s nail in the coffin).

Zidlicky got lured into stepping up on Pavel Datsyuk. One pass later, 2-on-1 between Tomas Holmstrom and Marian Hossa.

Game over. Season over.

Because no matter what the statistics say, this is what we all remember from the season.

0 recs  |  Comment 8 comments |

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Comments

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Well now

I would admit that Skoula is having a much better season. I think this is because he does not need to play against the top lines anymore. Johnsson, Shultz, and Burns usually take that role. However, just because Skoula isn’t tripping over himself on a regular basis does not make him a stud defenseman.

While Zidlicky has not had a good year, and has made some major mistakes, I have to wonder how many of those mistakes were coached mistakes. Is it possible that Zids is being pushed by the coaches to step up, take some chances, make something happen? I know this sounds ridiculous with JL behind the bench, but is it not possible? If he were taking these chances without coaching, he would be benched in a second, no?

My argument for worst defender is MAB. Just from watching, and with no statistical backing, he just seems to be out of position with no real reason to be. The puck seems to get past him more than the others, and he offers little or no real value at either end. His offense is almost nonexistent, and his defense is lacking. He does not play physical, and he does not play the puck well.

MAB and Zids were brought in to address DR’s view that there was not enough offense from the blue line. Problem here is that the system does not allow for the defense to be involved to that level. Thus the conundrum we continue to see. The GM puts players on the roster with certain talents, and the coach does not use those talents, instead stressing the system.

I don’t have the solution, at least not yet, but it seems to me the GM and coach should be on the same page, and they are not.

http://www.hockeywilderness.com

by BReynolds on Apr 6, 2009 10:43 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I'd agree

I would say that the two worst defenders are Bergeron and Zidlicky, but the numbers simply do not back it up. I cannot believe I am seeing what I am seeing. It simply makes no sense.

by nathaneide on Apr 6, 2009 10:58 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Sometimes

Sometimes the numbers just don’t support what we see with our own eyes. At those points, you need to take a look and say, OK, I think this, Buddha agrees, so does Russo, and everyone else who covers or watches the team regularly. None of the numbers in the stat book track the number of 2-1 breaks given up because a puck hopped a guy’s stick, or how many 1-0 breaks are given up because a d-man was more interested in taking an ill advised shot then controlling the puck.

Who leads the team in blocked shots? Schultz with 152. 78 hits for Schultz. 65 shots blocked and 29 hits for MAB. Only a slightly better 92 blocks and 74 hits for Zids. Johnsson has 139 blocks is helpful, but only 36 hits? We could go into the other d-men, but Burns had the worst year of his career, and no need to pile on, Skoula is well, Skoula, and Fozzie just got back.

The only numbers they track on d-men that matter to me are the hits, blocks, and TOI. If a guy is out there more minutes, he must have the confidence of the coach. Kimmy is at over 1900 minutes (256 SH, 129 PP), Schultz is at 1600 (263 SH, 4 PP), Bergeron has 1150 (11SH, 227PP), Zids has just under 1600 (96 SH, 257PP).

MAB is 13th on the team in TOI. 13th! Only Fozzie and Scott are lower for a d-man. Only trusted 11 minutes on the penalty kill all season. Do you suppose the coaches don’t see him as a major liability?

Low hits, low blocks, low TOI, miniscule TOI on penalty kill. The definition of a bad d-man.

http://www.hockeywilderness.com

by BReynolds on Apr 6, 2009 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Power Play

Does the Corsi rating include shots taken on the power play? MAB and Zidlicky tend to spend more tiime on the power play and Schultz and Skoula tend to do more penalty killing. Of course your team is going to be taking more shots on the opponets net then actually giving up on the power play and the opposite on the penalty kill. Wouldn’t this manipulate the Corsi rating depending how much time they put into special teams, where as, the +/- wouldn’t?

by KnowNothing on Apr 6, 2009 1:46 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

No

It’s only covering even strength (5 on 5) play.

by nathaneide on Apr 6, 2009 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

When it comes to defensemen and corsi, the things that matter most are: quality of competition (who they play against) and quality of teammates (who they play behind in terms of forwards). Forwards are typically the engine that drives shots for/against, so it matters big time who defenders are playing against/with.

Without even looking, Im guessing Lemaire shelters MA Bergeron big time. I know he’s offensively capable, but I also know he’s highly suspect defensively (since I used to laugh at him when he was an Oiler). Im guessing Lemaire keeps him away from anyone of real ability in terms of opposition, while at the same time trying to get him on the ice with somewhat capable forwards (since he does have the ability to promote scoring, as long as the puck is in the right end of the ice). The result, would, naturally be a superior corsi rating.

by Kent Wilson on Apr 6, 2009 8:02 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I would probably put more weight

on the relative +/-, but it has its own problems. One thing that needs to be compared to is strength of opponents on ice at the same time as player. one needs a stat that tracks not just the positive plays given up, but compares the positive plays givin up above or below opponents avg/shift. lets say an opponent has an average of .2 positive plays per shift, but when Zidlicky is on the ice he has .275 positive plays per shift, then Zidlicky would be below average defending him. A stat like that could be more usefull in figuring out ones defensive value. Hockey could really benifit from having a serius sabrmetric examination.

Will the Real Thor Please Stand Up ... ?

by the Real Thor on Apr 7, 2009 7:56 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

plus/minus, overrated

I can see perfectly who sux and who doesn’t without a plus/minus rating telling me. Who thought it was a good idea that we brought Bergeron here, or Zidlicky? I never looked at them and said “we need that talent on our team, I’m jealous because they have them and we don’t.” No. You didn’t hear that from anyone.

I attended the Dallas game, and now my buddy hates Bergeron. He got to see him live and see how much he sux. Just watching him skate irritates the piss out of me.

by mckay10 on Apr 8, 2009 6:59 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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