Rumors and the Art of De-bunking Them
by BReynolds on Aug 7, 2009 12:00 PM CDT
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Wild fans have had an excellent off-season. New management, new players, new hope. That hope has come with a free gift: rose colored glasses. In the past week, Nik Zherdev and Alex Tanguay have been thrown about as possible hosts for an Iron Range red jersey next season. Let's take a quick look at just how easy it is to de-bunk these rumors.
First, let's look at Zherdev. As soon as it was announced that the Rangers had decided to pass on the arbitration number, Wild fans began asking if he would fit in Saint Paul. Checking the stats, he looks solid, right?
Take a second and look at the new rumor coming via Brad Ratgen's Twitter. He says that according to a rumor site, Alex Tanguay is in the running for two teams. Tampa Bay, and here in Minnesota. Here is Tanguay:
Who wouldn't want Zherdev's 58 points on the roster or Tanguay's 41 in only 50 games, right? Wrong. As Russo pointed out shortly before blasting off for Vegas, Zherdev is a whiner. Russo also reinforces Chuck Fletcher's stance right now (check's in the mail Russo):
In other words, if at some point you truly believe you can somehow trade for a Jon Cheechoo or a Patrick Sharp or a Phil Kessel or another upper-echelon player, then you’ve pretty much got to pass on Zherdev. Remember, if you sign Zherdev to anything close to the lucrative deal he wants long-term, you’re taking yourself out of the game for anything else.
Fletcher has made it clear he wants to wait to see what the teams who are pushing the cap do as the season nears. He has said it multiple times. But, that means little, as it is not concrete. Let's put this in our back pockets for a moment.
Here is the concrete evidence used to de-bunk both rumors. NHLNumbers.com. A simple visit to the premier cap site on the web tells us that the Wild are at $53.675 against the cap for the upcoming season. The cap is $56.8 million.
Do the math. You are all capable.
Zherdev: $53.675 + $3.9 = $57.575 million.
Tanguay: $53.675 + $5.375 (last years number) = $59.05 million.
Now, reach back in your back pocket and pull out that information from before. Chuck Fletcher wants to see who he can get when other teams realize they are either over the cap or too close for comfort. Both of these players turn the Wild into the team that is over the cap. So, if Fletcher himself has said he wants to wait, why would get so brain cramped crazy about guys that put the team over the cap?
It has been a good off-season folks. Skoula is gone, Gaborik is gone. The team is immediately improved for those two reasons alone. Martin Havlat is in. We have new coaches ready to open up the ice. It is certainly a time to be excited, but it is not time to check your brain at the door.
-Buddha
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Well..
If I wanted to be evil I could point out how there’s no real chance Tanguay will make anything close to what he did last year. More like half. Maybe less.
But I’m not wanting to be evil, so I won’t point it out.
(I actually sorta hope he signs here for a Fedotenko-ish type deal.)
Even if it is more like half...
It still pushes the Wild uncomfortably close to the cap. Something Fletch said he doesn’t want to do.
http://www.hockeywilderness.com
Good Chance!!!
There is a really good chance the Wild will get Tanguay. Nothings really said we were gonna get Zherdev so i don’t know where that came from!!!
It seems a bit of a stretch
to say that the Wild are better simply because Gaborik is gone. In fact, that is a false assertion. The hope that the Wild are better with Gaborik gone is a combination of other factors: 1. Martin Havlat, as the primary replacement for Gaby, provides approximate point production and other intangibles that make other players better. 2. Havlat can stay healthy. 3. The money saved (cap space) from not signing Gaborik allowed/allows the Wild to be flexible and add other quality pieces.
As for your thoughts on Zherdev and Tanguay, I agree. At the asking price, they are too expensive for the Wild’s budget this year. Fletcher is playing a hunch that he can get a deal on an impact player off a team in cap trouble. He won’t make a signing until/unless those scenarios get played out… or he gets a ridiculous deal somewhere.
"Stay healthy"?
Well, Havlat stayed healthy for the 2008-09 season. But that was the first year he played more than 70 games since his second season in 2001-02, and his first of at least 68 games in four years. Over the three seasons prior to 08-09, Havlat played in only 109 games total.
So it remains to be seen if Havlat stays healthy consistently.
Yes, Ken.
That was what I was implying by point #2. Gaborik leaving didn’t make the team better. The team will be better for Gaborik leaving if my 3 ‘if’ statements play out… that and the team adjusts well to a new style of play.
by Krotz the Wall on Aug 12, 2009 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions
I think that
we all need to see the wild’s new playing style to really be able to determine what they need to add. They have some players who have put up points in the past, but we need to see if any of them can gel together for most of a season. Sign stars, accumulate draft picks to fill out the roster and repeat (the detroit way). At least that’s how I hope they run the show.
by TheEvilProfessor on Aug 19, 2009 10:28 AM CDT reply actions
In reply
Sorry for the delay, I did not realize people were still commenting on this.
First, to Krotz the Wall, go back and read my opinion on Gaborik. I won’t detail it out here. Suffice to say, the team gets better because they no longer need to deal with a guy who acts as though he is above the team and then sits on the IR all year while his teammates work their butts off for 82 games. The Rangers were the only ones willing to pay him. The same Rangers who signed Scotty Gomez to a deal that pays him upwards of 10 mil in some of the seasons. The Wild are better off with out himin tangible and intangible ways.
Second, to ccunited… nothing says they might get Zherdev? Russo said they investigated the possibility, and I recieved a few emails asking if he would fit. It also showed up on a couple rumor sites, and the Wild message board. So, something did say they might.
And to my good friend gaborik. Let me say first, I have missed you. Second, let me say that your quote of “Obviously, you can afford Tanguay if you move salary” is in itself, weak. Of course they can afford him if they move salary. If they move salary they can afford anyone. The question to you becomes, what salary would you move, and to where? Finally, I only used the 5.3 figure because that is what he made last year, and was the only number available when I wrote this.
With the recent signings, the Wild are around 54.4 million for the year. That leaves them around 2.1 million to sign Tanguay. Without a trade or a buy-out, this continues to be highly unlikely. Notice I say unlikely, not impossible. They also need to keep room available for injury call-ups and other replacements.
More likely continues to be a trade with Boston or San Jose, two teams in MAJOR cap trouble.
http://www.hockeywilderness.com
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