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How I dealt with my angry Blackhawks fan roommate

My Blackhawks fan roommate lost his mind after Saturday night's game, broke our patio door, and accused the Wild of being a team that "can only win in shootouts". Since he is a jackass and I absolutely had to prove him wrong, here is what I wrote up and sent him. I figured it might be helpful if any of you have any unreasonable friends that may have accused the Wild of the same thing. Enjoy.

---

This is why you're stupid.

I will be analyzing team shootout statistics from the 2005-06 season (the first year the NHL went to the shootout format) forward. For relativity purposes, I will be choosing 3 other teams at random to include in my research. Those teams will be: the Pittsburgh Penguins, the St. Louis Blues, and the Dallas Stars.

Here are the shootout records for each team for this season so far:
Wild: 5-3
Blackhawks: 4-7
Penguins: 6-6
Blues: 6-6
Stars: 6-6

The first thing that jumps out is that the Wild have actually played in the LEAST amount of shootouts among the five teams, and three less than than the Blackhawks. But of course, one half-season is not a large enough sample size to draw significant conclusions from, so here are the cumulative statistics from the previous four seasons:

Wild: (5-3, 3-8, 10-7, 5-3) Total: 23-21 (11.0 SO/yr)
Blackhawks: (4-7, 5-4, 6-7, 2-6) Total: 17-23 (10.0 SO/yr)
Penguins: (6-6, 7-4, 10-6, 1-6): Total : 24-22 (11.5 SO/yr)
Blues: (6-6, 3-5, 6-6, 4-9): Total 19-28 (11.75 SO/yr)
Stars: (6-6, 5-3, 9-4, 12-1) Total: 32-14 (11.5 SO/yr)

From this information we can effectively determine that the difference between shootout appearances per season is small enough to render it useless. The Wild averaged one more shootout per season than the Blackhawks. More? Yes. But one extra appearance during seasons consisting of 82 games is hardly enough to justify your accusations. Still, there is a lot more information to dig out of this before I can make any sort of conclusion.

Adding the '04-'05 to '08-'09 data to this season's current totals, we get this information:
Wild: 28-24 (52 total shootouts, 54% win pct)
Blackhawks: 21-30 (51 total shootouts, 41% win pct)
Penguins: 30-28 (58 total shootouts, 58% win pct)
Blues: 25-34 (59 total shootouts, 42% win pct)
Stars: 38-20 (58 total shootouts, 66% win pct)

To me, the only relevant information we can draw from this is that the Blackhawks and Blues struggle to win shootouts, and that the Stars are historically stellar in them (although the 12-1 mark from '04-'05 does slightly obscure the relevancy of the stat). "BUT THE BLACKHAWKS STILL HAVE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SHOOTOUTS!!!11", you might say. Yes, they have exactly ONE less than the Wild and only seven less (about 1.5 a season, counting this first half of the current season) than the seemingly overtime-happy Dallas Stars. Again, an amount minuscule enough not to hold weight in any argument.

Still, I must do a bit more bit more digging. Your argument was: "The Wild only win shootouts". Fine. I will calculate the ratio of total wins to shootout wins and ponts. It is only fair to do it this way because, a better team will, naturally, have more opportunities to win games late than one that sucks (I will call this the "Florida Panthers Rule") This will be most effective way of determining if this slight-minded argument has any sort of weight. First we will total up each teams total points from the '05-'06 season forward (including this season):

Wild: 47, 89, 98, 104, 84 (422 total points)
Blackhawks: 66, 104, 88, 71, 65 (394 total points)
Penguins: 57, 99, 102, 105, 58 (421 total points)
Blues: 43, 92, 79, 81, 57 (352 total points)
Stars: 49, 83, 97, 107, 112 (448 total points)

The next section will be deciding factor of how stupid either you are, or I am. There will be two percentages. The first will display how points came from shootout WINS, and the second will display how many points came from TOTAL shootout points (Remember: a team receives two points for winning a shootout and one for losing).

Wild: 13.3%, 18.9%
Blackhawks: 11.0%, 18.3%
Penguins: 14.2%, 20.9%
Blues: 14.2%, 23.9%
Stars: 17.0%, 21.4%

There are a lot of interesting things that pop up with this information. The first being the Dallas Stars' results, which conclusively proves the aforementioned "Florida Panthers Rule". It isn't that Dallas has to rely on shootouts to win, it's just that they have done a whole lot of winning the last 4 and a half years, and a team that wins a lot is inherently going to be playing in a lot of more meaningful third period and/or overtime situations. Not only that, but they have been able to get it freaking done in shootouts, with a completely insane 66% win percentage. Again, this represents four and a half years of information. 66% over four and a half years is ridiculous.

OK, now that the Dallas Stars have been effectively dismissed of any untrue accusation, let's take a look at the information I really want, that of my beloved Minnesota Wild compared to the Chicago Blackhawks.

Over the last four and a half seasons, the Wild have scored 0.6% more of their points via the shootout than the Blackhawks. That's right: three-fifths of one percent. Not even close to being a large enough number to hold any sort of weight in a debate. Basically, that 0.6% translates to 2.5 points. No, not 2.5 points per season, 2.5 points over four and a half years. That means, the Wild gain approximately one-half more point via shootout than the Hawks per season. Last time I checked, the NHL doesn't award half-points. And as a result, the winner (and still undisputed champion!) is me.

Not only that, but the Wild actually ranked dead last in "shootout reliance" when compared to the other three teams (when Barry Melrose starts throwing around this absurd statistic on SportsCenter, I expect to be fully compensated). I don't think this says anything about any certain team. But it does prove that arguing this phantom "shootout reliance" thing is completely stupid and utterly ignorant.

And that, my friend, is why you're stupid.

2 recs  |  Comment 3 comments

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OMG

Andrew,
Remind me to never get into a stats debate with you! That is a lot of data. Moral of the story is…never have a Blackhawks fan for a room mate!

by minnesotagirl71 on Jan 11, 2010 11:44 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Love it.

That’s some awesome homework. If they did this stuff in school instead of Algebra, I would’ve made the honor roll.

by Jolonco on Jan 12, 2010 11:52 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Dude

This is absolutely fantastic work. I tip my cap to you sir.

Proprietor of Hockey Wilderness - We take Minnesota hockey WAY too seriously.

by nathaneide on Jan 12, 2010 12:54 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

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