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How productive is Backstrom? Stats say not very.


Alright, don't shoot the messenger here.  Stacey Brooks is a sports economist and blogger (Hawkonomics).  He's also a co-author of the book, The Wages of Wins.  He and some colleagues have studied the productivity of NHL goalies and they have produced a Wins Above Average stat that rates productivity.  I believe they are relating this to how valuable each goalie could be to teams, thereby giving them an idea of how much cap space should be dedicated to them.

The results may surprise Wild fans.  Apparently Niklas Backstrom rates as the NHL 5th *WORST* goaltender using this metric.  He is given a -1.999  WAA rating.  Josh Harding rates higher than Backstrom, but still not very productive with a -.4155 WAA.

What say you, Wild fans?  If you don't like his methodology, do you have a better one?

The opinions posted here are not those of Hockey Wilderness

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What is the timeframe?

This season? Yeah, he’s having an off year, but overall? And does it take into consideration minutes played?

Proprietor of Hockey Wilderness - We take Minnesota hockey WAY too seriously.

by nathaneide on Mar 3, 2010 9:48 PM CST reply actions  

not thrilled

I don’t know – everyone seems to want to create a formula to rank player against player. I’m just not sure that it can be done effectively/accurately. I would think that minutes played, penalty kill minutes and the guys playing in front of him would have a big impact on a goal tenders performance. How do you take those into consideration?

by minnesotagirl71 on Mar 4, 2010 5:56 PM CST reply actions  

Nah.

Backstrom is considered one of the best in the game by everyone except this guy. Hockey is not a “Moneyball” sport. The numbers do not tell anywhere near the whole story. If Harding were the full time goalie through those games in October, the Wild would have lost more of them, and they would have lost by more.

Multiple odd man rushes in every game, defensive break downs at every turn, lack of scoring. The goalie has always been the broad shouldered individual to whom the wins and losses fall. It has never been fair. Hockey is a team game. The five guys in front of him have more to do with it than the guy in net.

by BReynolds on Mar 7, 2010 11:28 AM CST reply actions  

Also

You have to think of the mental wear that Backstrom goes through every time his team leaves him high and dry.

From a fantasy sports view: yes, he’s doing awful.

From a competition perspective: he’s doing everything he can to keep his team competitive, and the Wild would be lost without him. Things are going to get better for him and hopefully his statline will show it next year.

by ADN on Mar 8, 2010 10:48 PM CST reply actions  

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