What Makes a "Good" Contract? Right Wings Edition
by BReynolds on Jul 22, 2010 1:40 PM CDT
34 comments
With all of the contract talk here in Minnesota the past few days, maybe more discussion of good and bad contracts is the last thing anyone wants. Alas, we started this race, and we're going to finish it. Clearly, we here at Hockey Wilderness feel strongly about good and bad contracts, so hopefully no one takes offense when a couple guys end up with "not so great" as their rating in this one.
Here we go.
There really is no good place to start on this side of the ice, so I'll just go in the order they are listed on NHL.com. Once again, all salary figures from CapGeek.com.
Cap Hit: $5 million
Years Remaining: 5
Comparables: Phil Kessel 55 points (5.4 million), Nathan Horton 57 points (4 million), Shane Doan 55 points (4.5 million)
Good or Bad: Good, with stipulations. Judging by the players with comparable points, Havlat's deal is put into perspective a bit. Kessel was brought in to be a savior, and let's admit it, so was Havlat. Kessel's hit is dwarfed by the draft picks the Leafs are giving up for him, so Havlat is a steal by that standard.
Now, who else makes around $5 million per year? Ryan Kesler (as we have been reminded in the past few days) and Correy Perry just to name a couple. Who would you, the Wild fan, rather have right now? Now ask yourself if you truly believe Havlat can come back from his down season last year. Signs point to him bouncing back, what with Latnedresse in the fold, and now Matt Cullen centering that line. That's where the stipulations come in. THis is a good contract if Havlat can regain his old form. If it is another season or two at 55 points? Bad deal.
Cap Hit:$2.33 million
Years Remaining: Final year of contract
Comparables: Milan Hjeduk 44 points (3 million), Radim Vrbata 43 points (3 million), Brad Boyes 42 points (4 million), Blake Wheeler 38 points (2.825 million RFA)
Good or Bad: Bad. Here again, the comparables points guys make this deal look better than it is. Miettinen plays on the top line, the top line people, and misses the net more than he hits it. The points he does have, came in streaks, leaving Mikko And Bruno alone on the ice most nights. While the contract is a small one, a a fairly standard one, it still reeks like rotten garbage. Yeah, I get it. The guys with similar points all have higher contracts than him. Of the guys listed above, Hjeduk is in the twilight of his career and on the back end of earning potential. Boyes and Wheeler had highly disappointing years, and Vrbata... well, he's just Vrbata.
Maybe this contract isn't as bad as it feels it is, but the fact that the top line RW only had 42 points is highly disappointing, and likely tainting my opinion of the deal.
Quality top line RWs are difficult to find. Insert Gaborik joke here:______________________
Cap Hit: $1.4 million
Years Remaining: 3
Comparables: Tomas Kopecky 21 points (1.2 million), Petr Prucha 22 points (1.1 million), Patrick Eaves 22 points (750K)
Good or Bad: Good. Looking at points is a basis for comparison that gives us an even playing field. Factoring in things like hits, attitude, ability to trash talk and get under the opponents skin all change the field a bit. While hits are highly subjective, and of debatable value to winning, C-buck has led the league two years running, and that has to count for something. Add it all up and compare it to the deal the Wild just gave Eric Nystrom, and it all falls into place. Solid checking line forwards who hit hard, add grit, and have a touch for offense if presented with the opportunity. The man also sells some jerseys.
This deal is not a steal, but it is fair, which makes it a good contract.
Cap Hit: $2.33 million
Years Remaining: Final year of contract
Comparables: See: Antti Miettinen, above. Roughly a 40 point guy, last year riddled with injuries.
Good or Bad: Good. Here is where I get sketchy, because I think $2.33 million for Kobasew is not a bad deal, but it is for Mittens. Kobasew was brought in to fill a third line role, at least in my estimation. I don't have Chuck Fletcher's notes, but trading for Kobasew looked to be a stop gap until Bouchard returned to the line up. Another energy type guy, maybe under-utilized in Boston, and maybe capable of pushing 50 -60 points. He is not a prototypical top line guy, but he certainly could not do worse than Miettinen up there. Would be interesting to see him on a line with Koivu, just to see if there is chemistry. If Butch can't return at the beginning of the year, maye Todd Richards give Kobasew a shot.
Cap Hit: $4.080 million
Years Remaining: 3
Comparables: (Using 60 points) Bobby Ryan 64 points (1.922 million RFA with big raise coming), Chris Stewart 64 points (850K RFA), Dustin Penner 63 points (4.25 million), Jamie Langenbrunner 61 points (2.8 million)
Good or Bad: Good. The comparison numbers don't lie. The guys putting in 60 points from the right side get around 4-5 million per season. With Butch missing all of last season, fans want to jump all over this deal, especially since HWSRN gave him a verbal no movement clause to go with it. Well, the NMC is likely out the window, and the $4 million went to the insurance company, not to Craig Leipold. Butch's injury hurt in the standings, but it did not hurt for cap space. Long term IR status allowed the Wild to spend to replace him, but who can you just go get that is going to notch 60 points? No one, that's who.
So, those who think this is a bad contract may need to give Butch a season where he actually plays, and allow him to be the player he is. You all know the type... he's a play maker. Using the third definition of the words "play maker:" guy who skates down the ice, spins around, and either gives up the puck or tries to force one too many passes.
I want to side with those who say this is a bad deal, I really do, but the numbers don't lie. If he puts in 60 points, he earns his keep.
Position total: $10.14 million per season
0 recs |
34 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
Interesting take on Butch
and I agree that he needs a year to prove himself again. He’ll probably have a slow start, but he definitely could pick it up during the year. It’s also not crazy to think that he could be on the top line. His speed would offset Bruno’s lack of speed (ha) and Koivu/Brunette would probably see their goal totals go up.
And I agree with the Miettinen, and I’m ready for his contract to be up. Maybe we can get something for him at the trade deadline? I can only hope.
Thank you Jonsey!
Thanks for IDing that as Ozzy. It was also stuck in my head and I just couldn’t name the artist.
by minnesotagirl71 on Jul 22, 2010 2:56 PM CDT reply actions
For all of you:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=loyTCkV06xQ
Hockey Wilderness
Assistant Editor:SBN Minnesota
Rule #17: You may not impersonate representatives of Hockey Wilderness and handout NHL themed wrist bands.
Nice read as always.
If you were suggesting Havlat or Perry, I would much rather take Perry.
I actually did think the Bouchard contract was horrible but you make good points. He should be a great addition coming back, not thrilled about him being a top line player but for sure better than Miettinen.
I have to say I’m not a fan of PMB and his contract. His best years were with Brian Rolston, someone who unleashed shots. Without a pure shooter on the team, I really feel like his production will dip off. Playing him with Mikko just gives us two playmakers on a line, and we saw how that didn’t work with Havlat and Mikko. The top line needs a goal scorer, and PMB is most definitely not that. With Cullen anchoring the 2nd line center spot, does that mean we move PMB to the third line? If so, is $4+ million really worth it? I don’t think so, but I guess that’s just my opinion.
As much as I agree with you on the two playmaker thing, PMB will have to be a top line guy. No way in hell they leave Mittens there and put PMB on the third line. Butch is not a checker, and does not have the size to be a checker. Mittens could be, and does.
Maybe they find a LW for the top line, or maybe Lats gets a shot at some point with Mikko and PMB. Who knows?
Hockey Wilderness
Assistant Editor:SBN Minnesota
Rule #17: You may not impersonate representatives of Hockey Wilderness and handout NHL themed wrist bands.
I’d love to be able to move PMB, but with his contract and injury issues it would probably be tough. I’d be willing to trade Havlat if he would waive his NTC. IMO Bouchard would replace Havlat on the second line very well. A scoring winger is needed badly if we want to make the playoffs and be a threat.
Havlat
I think the Wild need to hold on to Havlat through one more year. Now that there’s a true #2 center, I expect great things from the Lats-Cullen-Havlat line, if that’s how Richards shapes the line-up. While he did have a poor season, so did just about everyone else not named Mikko. Hopefully the team really gets the up-tempo system this year and we see Marty flourish with a better pivot.
Well I tested the Culhavlatendresse line on NHL09 on PS3...
I pulled off an amazing 3 goal comeback with 5 minutes left in the game to win 4-3 against the Flames! That line combined for 8 points while they each scored one of the three goals I scored in 2 minutes! Let’s hope it translates to real life! ;)
JS, Champion of the first ever Hockey Wilderness Playoff Bracket Challenge! WHOOOOOOOO!
twitter: BubbleWild48
by BubbleWild48 on Jul 23, 2010 8:14 PM CDT up reply actions
hahahahaha
gotta love the NHL series. I’m about to update my roster to the current Wild roster on NHL 10 :D
NHL11 will be SICK! :O
JS, Champion of the first ever Hockey Wilderness Playoff Bracket Challenge! WHOOOOOOOO!
twitter: BubbleWild48
by BubbleWild48 on Jul 23, 2010 11:43 PM CDT up reply actions
I really wish i didn't get the red ring of death
I miss posing as CF and making things happen as the Wild GM :(
I've never really understood the PMB hate...
He’s paid alot yes, but he also scored around 60 points for 3 years. Yes, he’s isn’t going to be our go-to-guy like Koivu, but he’ll get the points.
Hockey Wilderness - Front Page Writer
CircularTheory - Follow me for prospect updates!
While he has scored 60 points in the past he is a soft player and doesn’t go in the dirty area, hence he is a perimeter player, I would rather have Owen Nolen than Butch.
If that’s the case, wouldn’t he be a good fit for the top line? He’s offensive minded while Koivu and Brunette are both pretty responsible. Sure there are no “pure shooters” on the top line if Butch is on there, but Brunette has shown the ability to put it away in the dirty areas and Koivu has a pretty decent shot that nobody ever talks about.
I don't really hate PMB.
I just feel the $4.5 million he gets could have been used to get a goal scorer. I’m just not a fan. I do hate when he does his twirl at the blue line once he enters the offensive zone.
Also, like I said, he only scored 60 points when playing with Rolston. I really believe that without a guy shooting like that, we’ll see his production dip down to a 30 or 40 point guy, and that’s not enough for his contract. I really hope I’m wrong, but the first year without Rolston he went back to 46 points, which is comparable to Antti Miettinen, and he doesn’t score enough.
by oni_link_04 on Jul 23, 2010 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions
But is Bouchard really comparable to Miettinen? If Miettinen can score 20 goals, Bouchard can. Bouchard also suffered that year from having almost no one on his line. With Koivu and Bruno, Bouchard could find offensive success.
20 goals?
Seriously, 20 goals isn’t enough from a top-line wing, and PMB has only gotten to 20 once in his career. If you don’t like Miettinen on the top line, swapping for PMB won’t be that much better if no one will score goals. On a team starving for goals, PMB isn’t going to pump in 30. That’s the major problem I see with the upcoming season. Our top line doesn’t have a top scorer.
But I really don’t think it matters anyways. Once PMB takes a strong check, he’s probably going to suffer from another concussion and miss an entire season again.
I agree for the most part. The problem is that we can’t get rid of his cap hit unless he does get injured, so why not put him on the top line?
Do you really think that Bouchard can’t contribute more to the top line than Mittens?
Moral of the story: he’s not going to just go away. The Wild have to utilize him the best they can.
Failed Experiment
As I alluded to earlier and has been noted, the Wild tried two playmakers with Havlat (who is a much better hockey player than PMB) and Koviu on a line. There’s no shooter. So to answer your question, I really don’t believe that Koviu-PMB-Bruno would be that much better than Koviu-Mits-Bruno. Both lines lack a finisher; just with Mits we have someone who shoots (and misses).
I understand that he won’t go away, but putting him on the top line doesn’t make that much sense to me. PMB never ever shoots and has a tendency to turn the puck over at the blue line.
I just don’t see him fitting in anywhere with our current roster. We have two better hockey players in Koviu and Havlat already has playmakers for the top two lines. PMB can’t grind or check, so he doesn’t really fit in on the third or fourth lines. I like the chemistry between Lats and Havlat, so I wouldn’t want him on that line. Bruno tied with Lats for most goals, so I don’t see him getting demoted. That would leave only switching Mits and PMB, but like I said, then there’s no shooter on the line.
Still, I would take Bouchard over Mittens. The problem you presented is valid and there really is no solution.
You can’t also write off Bouchard because of Havlat’s lack of success. Havlat sucked on every line at the beginning of the year. His time on the line with Koivu and Brunette was pathetic, but he was a pathetic player for the first 30 or so games. Butch is NOT Havlat, even though they have similar playing styles.
Like I said before though, I agree that Butch isn’t an answer on the top line. He’s more of a band-aid to stop the bleeding until something better comes along.
I don't think there is any reason why Koivu
couldn’t shoot more and add more goals. Like you said in your earlier post Buddha, he pretty much does what the situation dictates. If he’s on a line with PMB, I think he would rise to the occasion and put in more goals.
Looking at Koivu's stats...
No one on the Wild has as many shots as Koivu, but his accuracy is rather low, in some years, he’s shooting below 10%…
JS, Champion of the first ever Hockey Wilderness Playoff Bracket Challenge! WHOOOOOOOO!
twitter: BubbleWild48
by BubbleWild48 on Jul 23, 2010 12:02 PM CDT up reply actions
BUT
Koivu has one of the best one-timers in the league.
JS, Champion of the first ever Hockey Wilderness Playoff Bracket Challenge! WHOOOOOOOO!
twitter: BubbleWild48
by BubbleWild48 on Jul 23, 2010 8:19 PM CDT up reply actions
Koviu led the team in shots on goal last year, so he is shooting. He’s just a playmaker first, and he’s always looking to set up his teammates instead of taking all the glory.
by oni_link_04 on Jul 23, 2010 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions
but as Nemo and Brian said, he’ll put himself in the most productive spot he can. If that means goals, he can score.
Crosby went from playmaker to sniper this year, no reason Koivu couldn't do it
JS, Champion of the first ever Hockey Wilderness Playoff Bracket Challenge! WHOOOOOOOO!
twitter: BubbleWild48
by BubbleWild48 on Jul 23, 2010 8:18 PM CDT up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
Related FanPosts on Hockey Wilderness
Related FanShots on Hockey Wilderness
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Latest Puck Daddy - NHL from Yahoo! Sports
- Puck Daddy chats with Paul Bissonnette about his triumphant return to Twitter, plans for a bum tattoo
- In which former NHL coach Ken Hitchcock foils a shoplifter
- Montreal's Price talks new 2-year contract, expectations post-Halak
- Donald Fehr aware of Kovalchuk drama, mum on everything else
- Puck Headlines: Savard's agent rants on Bettman; Halak in Montreal
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
