Has Niklas Backstrom Lost his Fantasy Value?
by BReynolds on Aug 24, 2010 9:31 AM CDT
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PrintWhile not everyone is a fantasy hockey geek, the relative value placed on players is worth noting for non-fantasy players as well. It forms a basis for debate as the season nears, and the rankings of players against each other can easily translate to a fantasy league environment.
Reading posts around the internet about the rankings for the pending season, Niklas Backstrom is ranked very low in a majority of them. They all offer justifications for ranking him low, and yet none of them seem to mesh with the current reality.
I feel like the guy who has a girlfriend all of his friends hate, and yet I can't see it. Help me out? Make the jump.
We see Backstrom a lot here in Minnesota. Training camp, pre-season, 82 regular season games. Fantasy hockey players, while they do not all watch Backstrom as much as we do here, you can bet they pay attention to his stats and the situation here in Minnesota. What do they see that I don't?
First, let's look at the rankings.
From SBN's own FakeTeams:
TIER VI - Average goalies, bad teams.
Niklas Backstrom, Minnesota
Steve Mason, Columbus
Antti Niemi, RFA
Kari Lehtonen, Dallas
Many people were concerned about Backstrom heading into last year, as the Wild were moving from Jacques Lemaire's suffocating defensive scheme to a more wide open, run-and-gun gameplan. Backstrom's save percentage took a massive dive, from .923 to .903.
That would be tier six out of eight. That would be the tier six that ranks directly below tier five, labeled "Tier V - Average goalies, good teams. And Cam Ward."
As you see, the justification here is that the Wild are not a very good team. Now, granted, last year was fairly brutal for Backs. Stats are all that matter for fantasy hockey. There are no moral victories, there are no better tomorrows. It is make the grade or go on the waiver wire.
Still, it smacks of lack of understanding of what was going on with the Wild last season. Granted, his stats were pretty bad for a fantasy goaltender last season, but he made a fine #2, and even a #1 in deep leagues. This season is not last season, and one off season should not make people hit the panic button.
Our next example comes from one friend of the blog, Chris Wassel, writing for another friend of the blog, Red Light District Hockey. In a post entitled "Top 25 Fantasy Goalies," Backstrom does not make the list.
We do have one disclaimer on Minnesota goalie Nick Backstrom. He is not in the Top 25 because of fear for injury and this would ignite some serious debate on speculation. Josh Harding or the Russian Prospect will not make it either. Sorry Minnesota fans.
We had a brief conversation on Twitter about this, and there is strong disagreement on this end. Friendly disagreement, of course, but strong. Head over to the post and check out goalies that made the list. Here's a hint, almost everyone except Backstrom. This includes both goalies in LA, and Jonas Gustaffson in Toronto.
A hint for those playing in the Hockey Wilderness fantasy league this season: When two solid goalies play for the same team, neither of them is a good option. Two goalies split a teams wins, and most teams are not going to win enough games to make that worth it. Two goalies from LA on the list before Backstrom was truly confusing to me. Gustaffson plays for Toronto... enough said.
The thing that really caught my eye was the "fear of injury." Backstrom missed some games with injury, yes. The biggest loss of time was due to taking a puck off the throat, something he has little control over, and is not bound to repeat.
Some numbers: Backstrom played in 60 games last season. Luonogo, the #2 goalie on this list, played in 69. Pekke Rinne, #8 on the list, played in 58. Backstrom ranked 14th for NHL goaltenders in GP. Not bad, considering the throat injury. I do not disagree that Rinne is set to have a solid season, but he struggled mightily when handed the reigns as the #1 in Nashville, and Ellis had to jump in to save him several times. However, if we are willing to accept a change from this year to next for Rinne, we need to accept that same premise for Backstrom.
Again, there is no malice here, just a friendly disagreement.
Looking at the so-called professionals, we can look at CBS Sports fantasy rankings, as well as ESPN's. I would use Yahoo's but apparently they prefer to make us wait while they move the players who left for the KHL into the top 30.
CBS Sports lists Backstrom as the 16th best goaltender, just behind Chris Elliot, Chris Mason, and Jonas Hiller.
ESPN has Backstrom as the 71st overall pick, and the ninth best goalie.
While it is sacrilegious to accept ESPN as an authority in this matter, both CBS and ESPN at least have Backstrom being drafted and contributing.
The point of all of this is that Backstrom's reputation took a beating last season. The Wild were an awful team, and like the QB taking the blame for a football team's woes, the goalie bears the brunt in hockey. The talking heads opine, if only Backstrom had played better, kept them in the game, stolen a few, maybe the Wild would have been better. Stat wonks trot out save %, GAA, and other stats to show that Backstrom is not who he used to be.
As anyone who reads Hockey Wilderness knows, the Wild had some serious issues last season. New GM, new coach, new system, new players, too many people feeling far too comfortable with their job status.
This season is different. Defensive forwards have been brought in and coupled with solid two-way players to shore up the shut down part of the game. There are now four lines of bona fide hockey players. There are pieces missing, as has been stated here before. But we aren't looking for the potential for a Stanley Cup run. We are looking at regular season ability, and if Backstrom's numbers can rebound from last season.
Backstrom has not shown to be injury prone to the point of worry, and he stood tall while shots were being taken from the short side or while defending what has to be a record number of odd man rushes. There is little to no reason to believe that things have not improved in Minnesota, and by definition, that things have improved for Backstrom.
What say you, Wilderness? Can you set aside your fandom and evaluate objectively? Is Backstrom still capable of helping out a fantasy squad?
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They have Gustaffson listed?
Not only does he play for Toronto, and never won a starting job last year, but the dude missed games because he had 2 heart procedures and a groin issue. How is that not health concerns? :P
As for where Backstrom should rate, that is something of a more difficult question. I can certainly understand why there is such a variance in opinions about him and his game. There were a good many commentators who always ascribed Backs’ numbers to the system… a system goalie. Change the system and the result is more and better scoring chances against… and the numbers get worse.
The problem I have with ranking Backstrom near the bottom of the league has to do with a couple factors.
1. His defensive support was awful last year, especially early. The Wild gave up more odd man and pure breakaway chances than I’ve ever seen. Backstrom was hung out to dry. This was not due to Backstrom but due to a radically different way the defense was being asked to play… and they were doing it terribly. What with another year in the system, better defensive forwards, the assistant coach (Wilson) who will bring a more balanced defensive priority, I think the Wild will be tighter defensively.
2. Backstrom was injured and it certainly made an impact on his game over the season. Back’s has always benefited from consistency (reps in practices and games), and his season was up and down bringing inconsistency.
3. Backstrom is very nearly unflappable… his personality and approach pretty much guarantee that barring injury he is not going to simply melt down… but play very consistently.
4. The Wild should be better in all phases of the game this year (fully acclimated to the system, Richards growth as a coach, more competition for spots, better center depth, hopefully a healthy PMB, Burns, Havlat). If the team is playing tighter hockey, playing better on special teams, and having more consistent offense (which will be helped by rolling 4 lines this year), Backstrom will have more wins and better confidence… and confidence is an absolute key when playing goalie.
There are a couple troubling things though:
1. Backstrom is a butterfly goalie who has had some hip and groin issues already and is in his 30s. There is a real injury concern, even if it is from the nagging or short term variety. I don’t know how he’d handle missing more games, or needing to share more ice time with a #2.
2. Backstrom was fairly awful last year in the shoot out. The previous year, Backstrom rated out as one of the best goalies in the shoot out, a stat that no system can pad. However, that year is the outlier. Backstrom has been mediocre to bad in the shoot out. Is that a reflection of confidence, style, skill? It certainly prevents wins.
All said, I’d rate Backstrom as a top-half goalie: A starter who will play a vast majority of the games on an improving team. He won’t help with shutouts, but I’m thinking a .910 save percentage and in the top 12 in wins.
by Krotz the Wall on Aug 24, 2010 10:46 AM CDT reply actions
“Stat wonks trot out save %, GAA, and other stats to show that Backstrom is not who he used to be.”
Not to be a negative nancy, but the numbers are all that matters in fantasy hockey. I’ve drafted Backstrom in 3 straight years, and last year really hurt. The wins were down, the GAA was up, save % was down, and only 2 shutouts. The trap system, whether people like it in real life or not, made Backstrom a much more valuable fantasy goalie.
Agreed. I believe I may even have said that in there somewhere. Or, I deleted it… I can’t remember and the post is way up there.
My point was that those are last year’s stats, and they happened for a reason. Overall, he has had one bad season, and the fact that they can’t look past the stats, even for a moment, is going to cost them.
Hockey Wilderness
Assistant Editor:SBN Minnesota
Rule #17: You may not impersonate representatives of Hockey Wilderness and handout NHL themed wrist bands.
I agree that much of last year was due to the team trying to learn a new system, and thus had a bad year. Backs was left to dry a lot in the early going of the season; however, from a pure fantasy standpoint, I just think that his value does take a significant hit from the switch to the new system in general.
One of the big things that I feel got overlooked was the fact that while the Wild gave up a ton of shots playing the trap, they were poor quality chances, which helped boost the GAA and SV%. A lot of easy saves COULD indicated a goalie who had a higher value based on the system. I’m not saying Backstrom is bad; in fact, I love having him in the net as far as the team goes. His ability just won’t be reflected as well as far as a fantasy standpoint. It sucks, but fantasy sports are only reflective of trends, and he trended the wrong way with a decrease in numbers and the two injuries he suffered.
Backstrom's Value..
HAS to be in the top 25 by virtue of the fact that he’s going to get 65+ starts barring injury. As mentioned before, Backs is not prone to getting injured, and he’s one of the few goalies that take a hit in value due to “tandem usage.” Thus, the more starts, the more chances for wins and shutouts.
In the HW league, I’m sure Backs will be overvalued a bit, but he’s going to be a #1 goalie on a team because of the fact that there are 20 teams in our league (wow thats a lot). It a lot of other leagues, however, I think Backs will be undervalued, and could be a late steal in a draft.
While I don’t necessarily expect a huge decrease in GAA or increase in sv%, I think those numbers will even out to a more respectable level. I also think that he’ll be back to getting 4-5 shutouts, maybe more depending on team defense.
He may very well lost his fantasy value, but it’s to be expected.
If you look at the change in his save percentage and goals against, it is almost exactly the same change as occurred with Kiprusoff under Keenan and Byzgalov under Gretzky. Both those goalies were Vezina finalists as was Backstrom.
In terms of FANTASY value, they should really say that the Wild aren’t a bad team with an average goalie, but an offensive system which will have bad goalie stats.
Hey dudes
Appreciate the shout out … as for Backstrom’s value fantasy-wise let me be clear that I don’t think Backstrom is a bad goalie at all. That’s why the tier wasn’t called “Bad goalies, Bad teams” … it was “Average Goalies, Bad Teams” … being average is solid. Hell the Blackhawks won a Stanley Cup behind a league-average goalie.
For this upcoming year I think you could certainly make a case either way: that he’ll rebound or that his numbers will stay around the same. I think the most likely scenario is that he ends up somewhere in the middle. On a poor team again he’s looking at a .910ish save percentage, a low win total, and a highish GAA. That’s not exactly fantasy dynamite.
I think this is certainly a case where you have a player that helps his real life team more than he helps fantasy teams. To put it more simply: if you drafted Backstrom as your first goalie last year you did NOT have a very good season. This year I’d have him as a strong #2, and he’s a gamble that could pay off and be a good value pick, but it’s not one I’m pushing a lot right now.
Thanks for stopping by Jack. I had Backs on a couple teams last year, and you are correct. The teams he was my #1 on, they didn’t do well. Where he was the #2, those teams did better.
I am in full agreement that if his numbers stay in the same area, he lost a ton of fantasy value. With the upgrades to the team, I would say if Backs’ numbers don’t rebound, we may be seeing a new coach in town.
Hockey Wilderness
Assistant Editor:SBN Minnesota
Rule #17: You may not impersonate representatives of Hockey Wilderness and handout NHL themed wrist bands.
Yeah
I certainly expect Backstrom to be better — it’d be hard not to. For me last year was just SO bad that it’s hard to remember the guy with the .920 save percentages from a couple years back, he’s 32 and he’s only started 70 games once in three seasons.
I think you make a good point that there’s a gap between perception and reality right now. He has the talent to jump a few tiers (they’re pretty fluid) but the question is how likely is that? Dunno. I just don’t think I’d pin my team’s hopes on him at this exact point in time.
I honestly don’t think Backstrom had a terrible year. He is still a good goalie, and its evident. However, this might be because I never saw him as a Vezina worthy goalie when he did get his .920 Sv percentage.
His lack of ability to move side-to-side was obvious to me and his inability to make that 2nd save also seemed obvious. I think Lemaire’s system helped with that alot, forcing players to shoot the puck instead of giving time to make plays.
To me, he was always the type of goalie that would rely on his positioning and cushion that first shot so that there is no rebound, but like most offensive opportunities, its never just a straight shot.
The players are always going to try to pass the puck around, and will always look for that rebound, and I never saw that ability to make a highlight real save in Backstrom, keeping him from being a top goalie.
With that said, I think his positioning alone should keep him in the ‘good’ category.
Hockey Wilderness - Front Page Writer
CircularTheory - Follow me for prospect updates!
Point is...
When he achieved his .920, he was a good goalie in my eyes. The following year, he went into a new system with a struggling defensive core trying to learn how to play with the new style, and still able to put up a modest .903
So I still keep him in the ‘good’ goalie area…
Hockey Wilderness - Front Page Writer
CircularTheory - Follow me for prospect updates!
And actually ...
Fantasy-wise I’d say most of the Wild players fly under the radar right now. Koivu in particular is a MUCH better player than his perception would make it seem.
Totally agree on the Koivu argument. The only thing that works against him is the fact that Center is usually deep, and everyone flocks to the big names. Minny, being a small market, doesn’t get face time, and Koviu’s value drops. Mikko was my best center last year, which is impressive considering that Malkin and Mike Richards were my other two pivots. Hopefully he continues to improve, and if PMB joins the top line, then we should look to see him break 80 pts easily.
I agree...
He’s certainly not someone you’d target as your #1 goalie… unless you’re in a league with 20 teams. Still, this year, I see a slight rebound in sv %, a fairly good win total as the team will be better and Backstrom will still get the vast majority of starts, and average GAA.
by Krotz the Wall on Aug 25, 2010 10:06 AM CDT up reply actions
Anyone who wasn’t expecting his stats to make an upward trend in a change to a more offensive system is delusional.
Wheel of Time, save my soul, find a way; may it be as the pattern has chosen, oh Wheel of Time..
by TheDragonReborn on Aug 25, 2010 2:27 PM CDT reply actions
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