Why the Wild will finish last...

Not a bad devil’s advocate post, but you forgot about Johnsson, who is by far the biggest blow to the Wild.

IMO, this team will go as far as the defense takes them…and on paper they look pretty bad:
Zidlicky – all offense, no defense
Zanon – all defense, no offense
Schultz – decent but overpaid defensive player
Burns – often injured, complete wildcard
Barker – PP specialist, poor mobility
Stoner – often injured and untested

Johnsson was amazing at getting the puck under control and starting the breakout…after he was traded, the breakout went to crap and the Wild slid from being right on the bubble to almost a lottery team.

It’s going to take big bounceback years from Burns and Barker if this team wants to go anywhere, and we’ll probably need at least one other defenseman to step up out of nowhere (Scandella, Cuma, Prosser, Falk, etc).

I think that a large part of those fundamental questions will be answered in the positive, at least marginally positive, without much of a doubt. I base this one the nearly universal statistical support that year #2 of a transition always brings a better level of understanding and general performance. This will be most noticed in two areas.

1. Coaching:

Richards had a lot of things to deal with last year. A system that was about as completely different for the players as possible. 2 player fore check pressure, activating both the center and the defense. Lemaire’s system was like a blanket… not only did it clog up the ice defensively, it provided cover for the individual skills and talents of the players. Everything was back, it was numbers on defense and no space allowed… and offense happened in moments and through the few ‘skilled’ players. The pressure and attack system needs active skaters and players throughout, it needs skill, grit, and determination throughout.

Richards found himself in training camp with, according to Russo’s interviews with Fletcher, a bunch of guys who didn’t even show up to camp in shape. He had three lines, and the line that got to play when Boogy got ice time. There was almost no competition for places, at any place through the lineup. There wasn’t any young guys or upcoming talent that was going to make an impact. There was no center depth and no scoring depth.

And, this was Richard’s first time being head coach in the NHL, and only the second or third season ever leading the bench at any level? There is just a lot to learn, about your players, about yourself, about who to work through on the team. It didn’t go well a lot of the time, but I think that I saw enough flashes of the system, of the coaching decisions, to see that if Richard’s can get the lineups right, meaning rightly skilled and motivated players, this team will look better… especially on Special Teams (notoriously slow to come together after a transition) and on defense. Typically, coaches do a better job in their second seasons, most every professional in any field does. (First year professors are notorious for being overly demanding and not communicating as well with students… a lot of personal experience there…, but they get a lot better after a little experience)

The new Coach, Wilson, will help provide a much better balance to the defense. Based on what we know of his past defenses, he will still allow his D to be active in the game. However, the difference will be that it won’t be all of the D-men, and that he’ll have a stronger stress on defensive responsibility than it seemed the team had last year.

2. The Defense:

It can’t be lost on all of us just how much the new system was different and difficult for the Wild D-men to adjust to last year. A great deal of those early losses can be pinned on just how much the D struggled, especially on bad turnovers that resulted in breakaways and being caught up in the play with no cover. The D did get better over the course of the year… until KJ left and the Wild’s breakout suffered greatly.

There are a couple reasons to hope for better things this year. Firstly, the fact that the D unit, collectively, was playing better toward the end of the year. This suggests that part of the issue really was a matter of adjustment. Individually, when Burns came back form his prolonged injury, he looked a whole lot better… he was no longer trying to do all the offensive work himself. Baker got dumped into a new system and role, and he looked tentative. He’s young and has size and skill. He was an impact player when he was in a higher pairing and played PP with the Hawks. Let’s see what an off season, a full camp, and some motivation will do for his game.

Another positive is that there are several prospects pushing for playing time. This not only provides the Wild with options, but it applies a little more pressure and motivation for all the players. Options, plus a new coaching voice, will help the Wild solidify their defensive pairings this year.

Finally, it has to be mentioned that the Wild’s new depth at center, plus the ability to roll 4 real lines, will help most on the defensive side of the game. The fact that the Wild’s 3rd and 4th line got deeper, better, and more skilled will have a direct result in the defensive support (as well as the ability to pressure the opposing team).

What does this all mean?

I think the Wild will be a noticeably more solid team defensively next year. I expect the team to be better able to maintain pressure throughout the game, rather than just in spurts. I expect the special teams to player better. I expect the Wild to struggle to score at times.

This means, in my mind, that the Wild will not find themselves in as many deep holes early in games this coming year. How many times were they badly outplayed in the first period, mostly even in the second, and greatly dominating in the third? I think the Wild will be in more games and by that reason alone they will win more games. They are still lacking in the upper end scoring talent, and that is still going to be a problem. There are still some bigger health risks, mostly with the upper level scoring talent the Wild do have (PMB & Havlat).

There you have it… the Wild will be a more consistent and solid team next year, one that still needs a top level scorer or two before it can reasonably be expected to be a contender for anything. However, it will be team, barring major injuries, that will push for a playoff spot, and be a difficult match up for most teams.