On Stats, "Stat-heads," and the Minnesota Wild
by Xenai on Dec 1, 2011 3:50 PM CST
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PrintHello everyone. Stats have been one of the hotter subjects around here as of late, and I thought I'd chime in with some of my thoughts on that debate and some HW related things. First, the stats themselves.
Corsi currently says that the Wild are one of the worst teams in the league. The point totals currently say they're the best. Which one will prove right in the end? I'm inclined to go with corsi. Let me explain.
Yeo's system is a grind them down system. It focuses on a strong forecheck to create turnovers, constant pressure, and making sure the opponent is tired and not on top of his game by the third period. This is the kind of system which, if it works correctly, should unequivocally give the Wild the advantage in possession time. If the possession time stats don't look good for Wild at the end of the season, it means their system hasn't worked, and I doubt the standings will look good either. And yet, so far, the stats obviously haven't predicted the standings correctly.Why?
First, what I don't think reason for that is. I don't think corsi isn't matching up with the standings because it's not a good indicator for this particular team. Yes, the Wild pass too much and their defense is good at forcing the opposition into bad shots, so corsi might not be quite as accurate a measure of possession time for them as for an average team. However, there have been many, many teams who pass too much and/or have good defenses. The chances that the Wild are a huge outlier are miniscule. So what do I think the reason is, and how can argue all this and still make an insanely optimistic prediction about the Wild's final seed? After the jump.
What I think has happened is a combination of lucky breaks and hard work. The Wild got a fair number of good bounces early in the season. They had to play their hearts out to take advantage of them, but they were lucky nonetheless. The Heatley goal against the Oilers earlier in the season is a perfect example. 1.2 seconds left and Heatley gets the puck into the net to force OT and steal the win.
If the Wild hadn't been fighting with everything they had down to the buzzer they would never have gotten that goal. But if Khabibulin had been on top of his game, they would also never have gotten that goal. That's a shot not even most average goalies will let in, and it still took a fair amount of luck for the puck to scrape across the goal line. If Khabibulin is hugging the post like he's supposed to, and one of the shots on Backstrom in one of the Wild's 14 other one-goal games goes in instead of hitting the post and the other team goes on to win, the Wild are suddenly 14th in the league instead of 1st.
"But," some will say," none of that happened, and the Wild are 1st, not 14th. Points are what really matter, not stats or what-ifs." True. But only at the end of the season. What do points at the quarter mark of the season show? Trends. Right now, the Wild's point total shows a very nice winning trend. But if they end up with 89 points through 82 games, nobody is going to care that they had 33 through 25. Yes, points are still more materially important than stats. 5 points above playoff pace now is money in the bank that will be very useful later in the season, no question. Which one has more predictive power though? I personally think the answer is generally stats. Every year there are teams which have a hot start points wise and then crash and burn, or a slow start points wise and then dominate. The stats guys can usually predict which ones they are.
The key word there is, however, usually. I personally think the Wild have a good shot at ending the season near the top of the standings. Why do I think that, after all this arguing that they're overperforming and the stats are right? Because I think they've stopped overperforming.
They Wild have learned the system. Koivu has gotten back into form. Clutterbuck is catching on fire. Heatley, if he continues his recent offensive work (not counting that dud against Nashville) will eventually start to score. Bouchard is improving, the rookies are improving, Setoguchi will we can hope eventually improve. Things are on the upswing. The Wild should have taken a hit in the standings while they were learning their new system with their new coach and new players, but they managed to use their lucky breaks well and they didn't. Now, they're in excellent position to fight for not only the playoffs, but for a high seed. I said I think stats are generally a better predictor of final position than early season point totals. That doesn't mean I think the Wild couldn't get the third seed in the West, it just means I think the stats will also be good if they do. Yes, after that long-winded attempt at logical, objective argument, I've proved myself a complete homer. Now, for a discussion about the discussion about stats.
Many people are taking the stats too far. Many people are making sweeping statements about how bad the Wild are without any real research to back it up. Other fans and the national media are generally totally dismissive of the Wild because they don't feel like putting in any work to see if their years old generalizations are accurate. It's annoying as hell, no question. But I think we're focusing on it far too much.
I don't even remember the last time I saw someone talking about regression that wasn't a Wild fan. If we weren't constantly making sarcastic jokes about it, would it still be an issue? I doubt it. What happens if Zona makes his vendetta post about the Wild on Copper and Blue and we ignore it? A couple Oilers fans have their fun and nobody cares. Instead, the Wild take back first place in the NHL and the dominant storyline for the night is how much stats and The Copper and Blue and their Bible verses and moderators and tables and acronyms and everything else suck. Something's not right with that picture.
We can say the media and other fans are stuck in the past, and we'd be right to do so. But we'd also be a little bit hypocritical. Last night we had a 1200 post game thread, beat a division rival in a come-from-behind win, saw Koivu match a career high point streak, watched Brodziak destroy his old team, and somehow kept ourselves at the very top of the standings in December, and yet the bitterness and negativity on HW wouldn't have been out of place in the middle of last year's late season collapse. There's just no point in that. We're focusing on the wrong things, and there's stuff we could focus on that's so much better.
The Wild might finally have it folks.
The opinions posted here are not those of Hockey Wilderness
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Great write-up
I hope this doesn’t spark another debate about the same thing we’ve been talking about for a week though. I won’t be taking part if there is, because I’m tired of talking about this.
Regardless, well done! Fine piece of writing! A good mix of reason and facts
I'm that ''ignorant dumbass'' who writes with the ''whiny idiot homer'' over at Hockey Wilderness.
Twitter: BubbleWild48
well written
Very civil, logical piece. That being said the oilers still suck :) we’re number one,we’re number one
Don't know what I'm fighting for, but I know what I'm fighting against
by PUTTINxONxTHExFOIL on Dec 1, 2011 4:37 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Perfect! Completely agree with it all
Theres no doubt that the wild to find more offense. I think its unreasonable to count on backstrom and the D to play out of their mind all year long. They have been really fortunate to have a hot goalie(s) and defense while the O still hasnt gelled. At the end of the year i fully expect the offense to be better than it is now and the d/goalies to drop off a bit. When/if that happens the wild will still be in a good spot because of the great start to the season.
I like drama of the one goal games, but im craving a game where the Wild beat down another team 4-1
Awesome write up! :]
I think that most people on HW weren’t upset about the use of stats, as they were about the…. less than sportsmanlike… way they were presented.
Either way, we can rejoice in the fact that WE’RE NUMBER 1, and we only have to play Edmonton two more times until we’re on to other teams.
Also, lets hope that the Capitals actually play at the level that they’re capable of, and slaughter the Pens, so we can KEEP our shiny lead! :]
I would agree
That this is a fine post. I disagree wholeheartedly with the last paragraph. Snark and bitterness are what we do here. It is not negativity, it is jokes. Sarcasm is not going anywhere, so if that is seen as bad, well… not overly sure what you would be asking for.
When other writers mock the Wild, and do some with ignorance to the truth on the ground, we (or maybe I should I) mock them in return. We still have many jokes that run rampant through the site based off of stupid things writers wrote about the team. his is just another form of that.
Love your take on the stats, great, well written post. Just not sure you’re quite honed in on the community all the way if you thought that was negativity.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Editor:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
Agreed. 100%.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Editor:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
I love the snark and bitterness
Love it.
However, I thought in this recent exchange, it went on too long and too far. That is not to say I don’t get because I do. I think I’ve been around long enough to know better.
I credit sticking to your guns, but I felt by the end of it, unfortunately the community was starting to come off like petulant children. The thing to be careful with sarcasm is to not take it too far lest we start believing our own bullshit. You may disagree—and that’s fine—but from my point-of-view, HW was starting to look really bad, and I didn’t like it very much as this is a place of which I’ve come to be very proud.
Great post here; rec’d, thank you, Xenai. I also liked J.J.‘s comment regarding how the advanced stats kind of do predict exactly where we thought this team might be at the end of the year (in some previous thread; I don’t remember which—gamer or recap—and I don’t want to go back before I hit POST here). Let’s get back to some level-headed discussion like this for a few minutes and then get right back on the “Snarky Horse™”.
Being from Minnesota, it would be rude to put something clever here.
OK, I am curious. I don’t want you to point out specific posts or anything, but what made it feel that way? Because I thought it was pretty good fun. I can’t believe for a second it would have happened on a game thread against… say the Panthers. It was the perfect opponent to take it as far as it went. There is no reason to believe it carries over into the thread about the Devils, and no reason it needs to come out against anyone but the Oilers, if at all.
I have read every one of the comments, and I just don’t see where the feeling is coming from. I could be wrong. Hell, I’m wrong all the time, but what I saw were fans that felt slighted having fun at the expense of the people they felt slighted them. Quite a few of which have very good reason to feel that way after being repeatedly called ignorant or worse. I think those people are entitled to a little bitterness release.
If the feeling is that 1100+ comments of snark is negativity, then I have a strong feeling that if HW grows to be as big as some of the other sites (PPP, SCH), there will be a great deal of miscommunication.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Editor:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
Not speaking for redheadzeb,
but I agree wholeheartedly with what she said. It wasn’t any one specific post, but more a general feeling reading numerous posts/comments each day for a long while that seemed to go out of the way to disparage stats and statheads. I much prefer watching the games to form opinions, but stats do have a use. Whether or not the blog that shall not be named used them correctly, stats do have some use. I think the site as a whole came off as the get off my lawn guy who refused to allow some new fangled contraption to supplement the enjoyment of the game. The blog war really started to feel like a big brother baiting a younger brother into a meltdown just for fun, and we were the little brother that fell for it.
Angry Oilers fans wrongfully saying the Wild are one of the worst teams in the league
Yeah, that was a good supplement to the enjoyment of the game.
I took the brunt of their insults over there, mostly insults to my intelligence, just for saying my opinion and defending my team and my friends in the fanbase, so I think I’m allowed to vent a little bit. Sometimes, it’s good to take the low road, or else you just keep it all in and explode.
I'm that ''ignorant dumbass'' who writes with the ''whiny idiot homer'' over at Hockey Wilderness.
Twitter: BubbleWild48
Just chiming in..
I think all the arguing, bitterness and jokes are what make following sports teams so much fun. Just think how spiced up things will be for our next game against the Oilers. It’s all part of being a fan.
I followed a lot of of that exchange after I became aware of it the next day
I didn’t read every single post, but enough to agree that it was quite unfair all around. I understand why you were so upset and the need to stick up for your friends and your fellow fans here at HW. I commend the loyalty.
Now, if it were me, and I’m just talking about me here, I would have walked away after the first pot shot. The banter that followed had its humor… for a while. Sometimes good comedy is just knowing when not to make a quip (think Costanza, “Well, that’s it for me; I’m outta here!”)
Being from Minnesota, it would be rude to put something clever here.
To be fair
I do agree that some comments made by us were a bit misplaced or unnecessary, but I’m certainly not apologizing for my jabs. I’m still pissed. Think of that what you will, I’m easy to piss off.
I'm that ''ignorant dumbass'' who writes with the ''whiny idiot homer'' over at Hockey Wilderness.
Twitter: BubbleWild48
Well, actually
To phrase it a little better, I apologize to the people of HW that didn’t like it, but I’m not taking it back.
I'm that ''ignorant dumbass'' who writes with the ''whiny idiot homer'' over at Hockey Wilderness.
Twitter: BubbleWild48
You don't even have to apologize to us (me, anyway)
It’s like family in that regard ;-)
Being from Minnesota, it would be rude to put something clever here.
That's what HE said ;-)
But I’ve been called worse so it’s all good
Being from Minnesota, it would be rude to put something clever here.
I’m telling you, that’s not how I read it at all. But, to each their own, I guess. As for me, I won’t be letting go of the joke, so if that offends people, I guess I apologize in advance. I don’t think others are going to either. It’s just like saying “Sorry Tom” every time some one mentions hard work. Only this time, there were way more people around because traffic has increased.
Not sure what to tell you all. I acept and acknowledge what you are saying as the way you took it, but that is not at all how I read the comments and not at all how I see the conversation. I see a bunch of people making jokes. If you want to see it as a big brother / little brother thing, so be it, but there is a history here, and one that likely doesn’t go away.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Editor:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
It just got old.
To me it felt a little like beating a dead horse and a not very funny one at that. I just skipped a lot of those comments. If the people directly involved in the dispute wanted to continue it, that was fine. But I think wearing others insults as a badge of honor may not set the type of tone/mood you guys generally maintain around here.
"Pain heals. Chicks dig scars. Glory lasts forever." Shane Falco
"The Sharks got the better deal. They got a Burns. The Wild lost a Burns. You need a Burns to be good." KFAN's Jacques Lemaire 6-25-2011
by minnesotagirl71 on Dec 1, 2011 9:09 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
The tone around here is usually pretty belligerent and bitter, covered graciously with sarcasm and snark. I think people are taking last night a bit too seriously, which if there are any rules here, that breaks them. Again, I accept that you didn’t like it, but it fits the tone of the site to a T. I mean, come on… look at our power rankings… we based the league on sweater numbers to mock the power rankings around the league.
I apologize that you didn’t like it. I did. Many others did. It is not an every day occurrence, and I feel there is a great deal of over reaction to it.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Editor:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
No need to apologize
This is your site to do with what you wish. I was just trying to offer a different perspective.
I do love the snark and bitterness as those qualities define quite a lot of the minutes of my days. I just was getting tired of this joke as I thought it deviated from its original intent. We can agree to disagree here and still be friends (I hope).
Being from Minnesota, it would be rude to put something clever here.
Continue to do what you do
and no need to apologize. I can choose to read the posts and comments that I want to and will skip over the rest. I wouldn’t have even said anything, but you asked. My plan was to just wait for it to pass or (more likely) diminish.
You say that people are taking it too seriously. It FELT really serious. That’s just my perspective. What you intended may have been completely different.
The power rankings to mock power rankings are funny! Snark and bitterness combined with humor are exactly what I expect and hope for here and I will continue to come back for that very reason.
"Pain heals. Chicks dig scars. Glory lasts forever." Shane Falco
"The Sharks got the better deal. They got a Burns. The Wild lost a Burns. You need a Burns to be good." KFAN's Jacques Lemaire 6-25-2011
by minnesotagirl71 on Dec 1, 2011 10:05 PM CST up reply actions
I think it was the constant “poo-pooing,” if you will (I can’t think of a non-childlike term at the moment), of anyone that actually did try to make a reasonable argument about the statistics and their usefulness. I’m not a statistician, but work in a business where I see value in the numbers when used correctly. Conversely, I do see how it can and does go bad if they aren’t used context, and you were trying to make that point. A point I agree with. I felt that point was being lost with so much “regression” humor and flat out telling anyone that tried to make a numbers argument to “go away” no matter where they were from.
I’ll agree 1000% that CnB’s gamer on 11/25 kind of came off dickish and that also was the focus of your ire. However, it seemed after a while that focus got pinned on statistics for statistics sake and that started to make it appear a little ignorant. Like I said, sarcasm is great, but once it goes too far it makes one start to wonder if you actually believe the BS your spewing.
FWIW, I thought the ‘ryanbatty’ recap at CnB was fair and actually put some context around the game last night and the Wild’s season overall. It came off as pretty classy in comparison to what was going on over here, IMHO. Again, just my opinion.
Being from Minnesota, it would be rude to put something clever here.
I guess I’m not quite sure what to say. I don’t see anything wrong with what went down. As I said above, I can accept that you felt that way, but I think if you go back, and look at the track record of the site, it was exactly what happens any other time, there just happened to be more people around.
As for stats, I could write up my official take, but people would just come and twist the words and turn it into another fight. the short version? I don’t like them, I don’t care what they say, and anyone who continues to link to the exact same story that 100 other people have linked to deserves to be mocked for being a follower.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Editor:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
As for telling people to go away, the only person I told to go away was Cool90 or whatever the hell their name was. The reason, if the explanation is actually wanted, is because they were linking back to gamer that started all of this. Blatant trolling.
If you really want the whole story, email me. I don’t think the whole thing needs to be aired publicly. But trust me, there is more to this than just mocking the term regression.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Editor:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
It's okay
I’m obviously not aware of any back-story nor do I feel I need to be (though I’m guessing it has something to do with the aforementioned treatment by Derek Zona and something about hypocrisy). While understanding that does give me some more context, it really is just the way it is. In particular on the internet where many other traits of human communication just cannot be relayed.
I hold no ill regard, and I am not asking for any apology or other such act. I appreciate the opportunity to be able to state how myself and [maybe] a few other of us felt about it. I’m good with leaving it at that.
Being from Minnesota, it would be rude to put something clever here.
On ryanbatty
The only thing I will say is to look at the first paragraph of the gamer for last night. Saying that the Wild are so boring that they put you to sleep is beating a long-dead horse. This isn’t that type of team, they don’t play a 1-4 forecheck, they aren’t the most boring team in the NHL, etc. etc. It’s those types of comments that continually get the ire of much of the Wild fan base and the kind of stuff that sticks in my craw. As a result, I will fully admit that I will take someone’s words and shove it down their throat, and yes, it can get boorish after a while, and it’s exactly what happened last night.
As was stated earlier, it’s not going to come out time and again, but it will come out when we play a team whose fans treat us the way the Oilers fans do. I mean, Jesus Christ, it’s a team that has been looking up at the Wild for almost a decade and yet they continually act like our favorite squad is what’s wrong with the NHL instead of looking inward.
Proprietor of Hockey Wilderness - We take Minnesota hockey WAY too seriously.
Fair enough regarding booring and trapping play
I have traveled all over the US for work (much less now that the purse strings have sphincter’d worse than.. well, I’m not feeling like going there but I was thinking about using a Penn State analogy). Everyone I meet that happens to be a hockey fan or just pretends to be one on TV holds that opinion. I get tired of trying to change it. So I just let it go to the point I honestly forgot about that part of the post.
For the record, I enjoyed your reactions to the Whitney/Clutterbuck incident on Twitter. They were very apropos. I didn’t quite understand that line of thinking coming from whoever it was coming from (Oilers fans mainly, but they weren’t the only ones I’m sure).
Being from Minnesota, it would be rude to put something clever here.
To me
And I preface this with I’m very new to HW as I’ve only been lurking for about two years, an actual poster for about 1 (or maybe a 1/2) year but it seemed to go beyond the regular snark and bitterness and sarcasm that you expect because it felt more “personal” this time.
It reminds me of times you’re at a bar with two friends that you know don’t really enjoy each other’s company but they wanted to come to hang out with you and one of them makes a snarky or sarcastic comment to the other and then shrugs it off with “Just joking!” but you know deep down he really isn’t joking and he was actually out to make the jab a bit more personal to dig it into the guy he doesn’t really like.
Anyways, if that’s the way it is then that’s the way it is here. I still check up because it focuses and gives information on a team I enjoy following.
It just got very tired.
A joke and some sarcasm is great. I love it. A little bitterness over being rather disrespectfully treated, is understandable and expected. The problem arises in that it goes on and on and on. We, as in the collective followers of this blog and the writers, are continually being baited and we continually fall for it. To outsiders it seems that what we are trying to hide is our own insecurity with the success of the Wild, our fear that it is indeed a fluke. So, they keep poking and disparaging… and we keep on falling for it rather than saying our piece and leaving it at that.
This place is for talking about the Wild, about hockey, and about the things around hockey. I think most everyone enjoys it when we call out an article or a dialogue that is more than a little ridiculous. We all step up to call out what we see as obviously bias or non-researched opinions on the Wild. But, we should be willing to stand on our statements and not get into a non-stop bicker fest. Just because someone has the last response in a thread it doesn’t make them the winner.
I’ve always enjoyed the succinct argument, “Yeah? Check out the scoreboard.” There is no point in debating with people who don’t want an actual discussion but only to make us look bad.
by Krotz the Wall on Dec 2, 2011 8:35 AM CST up reply actions
I feel uniquely qualified to critique this piece of performance art.
I’m a Wild fan who has known Derek online for six years or so for non-hockey reasons, and has stopped through here on and off during the last six months.
And I find this whole thing incredibly hilarious, though I do think in the heat of the postgame both sides kind of lost their humorous momentum and resorted to retreading and unfunny personal attacks. Even so, this is the sort of thing that makes HW popcorn-worthy, especially with the added flavor of comparing it to Derek elsewhere.
I do hope that Bryan and JSL will work on their games a little bit and let the other team be the ones who get baited into sloppy play. Though since the Oilers think they get six skaters on the PP it’s not too big of a problem.
Though since the Oilers think they get six skaters on the PP it’s not too big of a problem.
Score.
As for working on my game, I enjoy my agitator role quite well. Maybe I can watch the penalties, but maybe I can squirt the opposing player with a water bottle to show my discontent.
I'm that ''ignorant dumbass'' who writes with the ''whiny idiot homer'' over at Hockey Wilderness.
Twitter: BubbleWild48
The Oilers lead the league in bench penalties.
Clearly they’re the worst team in the NHL.
Sound kinda familiar...
Just watch out for attempted knee-on-knee contact.
Regressing to the top of the league.
Indeed
Not only would I be injured, the offender wouldn’t even get suspended.
I'm that ''ignorant dumbass'' who writes with the ''whiny idiot homer'' over at Hockey Wilderness.
Twitter: BubbleWild48
Yeah
I got the suspensions and injuries to other players and the insane penalty minutes to prove it….. Oh wait…
I'm that ''ignorant dumbass'' who writes with the ''whiny idiot homer'' over at Hockey Wilderness.
Twitter: BubbleWild48
I'll work on my game
But when it comes to Zona, I will pull no punches. It is, in every literal sense, personal, and at this point I really don’t care who knows it.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Editor:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
Wanted this as high in the comments as possible
What I think has happened is a combination of lucky breaks and hard work.
Sorry Tom!
Corsi currently says that the Wild are one of the worst teams in the league. The point totals currently say they’re the best. Which one will prove right in the end? I’m inclined to go with corsi. Let me explain.
Just a friendly reminder that a raw Corsi number needs to have context added to it, such as score effects. The best way to eliminate score effects is to look at the Corsi (or Fenwick) number when the game is tied.
Zona ain’t the only one expecting the Wild to be a bubble team at the end of the year. The venerable Gabe Desjardins over at Arctic Ice Hockey / Behind the Net (among others) hold the same opinion.
Follow me on twitter @CoolJ90
So?
Doesn’t mean squat with what will actually happen. They may be good with numbers, but soothsayers they are not and their word isn’t the law.
Now quit it.
I'm that ''ignorant dumbass'' who writes with the ''whiny idiot homer'' over at Hockey Wilderness.
Twitter: BubbleWild48
p.s
Phil kessel looks better in Minnesota colors :)
Don't know what I'm fighting for, but I know what I'm fighting against
by PUTTINxONxTHExFOIL on Dec 1, 2011 6:07 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
did they write a full article about it?
i’m searching but can’t find it…
Hockey Wilderness - Front Page Writer
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Future Considerations Scout
General Manager of The Chanimals of the Hockey Wilderness League
Which is fine. No team in the past 30 years has missed the playoffs after holding the top position in the league on Dec 1. Gabe and Zona will be wrong. Nearly every “expert” predicted the Wild to finish at or near the bottom of the league. THey aren’t there, nor will they be. So, while the numbers might say they are the worst team in the league, now you are admitting the numbers could be wrong, and they are a bubble team?
Progress, you have been made.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Editor:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
...
No team in the past 30 years has missed the playoffs after holding the top position in the league on Dec 1.
Ok, but do you expect them to finish in the top 4?
We predicted somewhere around 6th-8th before the season
Nothing has changed.
I'm that ''ignorant dumbass'' who writes with the ''whiny idiot homer'' over at Hockey Wilderness.
Twitter: BubbleWild48
We may be homers
But we’re also realistic :) We know 1st place is not going to last, but we’re enjoying while it lasts
I'm that ''ignorant dumbass'' who writes with the ''whiny idiot homer'' over at Hockey Wilderness.
Twitter: BubbleWild48
Ok
We know 1st place is not going to last, but we’re enjoying while it lasts
So, you and BReynolds (because he responded below), do realize that basically the stats are just insinuating is that the Wild will most likely fall to this level(ish) by the end of the season (6th-8th). This is because while the Wild have amassed so many points this early into the season that even if they play more like their metrics suggest their points pace will slow and they will start to slide in the standings.
I’m not trying to re-hash the debate, but I’ve been following it and it seems no one has really mentioned/explained the big picture and the overall goal: the standings at the end of the season. The Wild have managed to produce results, despite what the metrics might suggest, but at the same time the metrics (which have a strong correlation in regards to future events – as you’ve been told) are just suggesting the Wild will slide down, as you seem to agree with in your overall prediction at the start of the season.
Just sounds like a mis-understanding to me.
Not True
Its been said numerous times, by about everyhere we fully expect the Wild to end up int the 5th-8th range.
Argument mostly about CnB insisting we are the worst team in the league because Fenwich tells them we are, disregarding other aspects of the game and only concentrating on the “unsustainable goaltending”, while completely ignoring the fact that most of shooters are shooting well below career avg shooting percentage(heatley currently at around .08 when career is around .15) and just like goaltending that will likely correct itself towards the avg. Meaning we will stop less pucks, but score more goals.
?
Its been said numerous times, by about everyhere we fully expect the Wild to end up int the 5th-8th range.
Ok, yes, I agree, and I’m agreeing with you because while the Fenwick numbers (which encompass many aspects of how to win a hockey game) say the Wild are one of the worst teams in the league at possession (which have good correlation with future results), the Wild have amassed so many points so early on here in the season that even when/if the numbers do correct themselves, the Wild will only slide to the 6-9 range in the West in my mind.
Now looking at the team shooting percentage at 5v5, I agree – the Wild are below average and many of the players are shooting below their career averages – so you do have a point that more goals might start going in down the road.
As for the goaltending, the word “unsustainable” is being thrown around because if the season ended today Backstrom and Harding would have posted the best numbers by goaltenders post-lockout with ease. Now, I’m not saying this can’t continue, its just that in their past neither Backstrom or Harding have shown this kind of talent, so its not hard to doubt that they may fall back to their averages (both of which are good – I own Harding in a fantasy league because I know he’s got a lot of potential despite his injuries).
So I’m actually not sure in the end what you’re saying isn’t true.
Oh, and two tidbits for the record, 1) before someone tells me to watch the game (that I’ve played since I was 4, through college) I watch all Rangers game and the Rangers are in a similar boat to the Wild – and I’ve pointed this out to Blueshirt Banter readers. They acknowledge and hope for the best.
2) I’m moving to St. Paul to work for Eaton Corp. in Eden Praire in January – so I’ll be more interested in the Wild soon. I guess don’t take my agreeing with the numbers the wrong way – I wan’t to go to some fun games down the road.
The part I was saying wasn’t true is this.
I’m not trying to re-hash the debate, but I’ve been following it and it seems no one has really mentioned/explained the big picture and the overall goal: the standings at the end of the season
I think we are all aware of where the Wild will likely end up.
And on your second point, welcome to Minnesota! You sure picked an awful time of the year to move here(weather wise) But the Summers are beautiful so don’t get to down.
I think the point is that the people who are bashing the Wild seem to think that we feel they are going to win the Cup, and that has never been stated. At the same time, they continue to pound the idea that the Wild are still going to fall apart and finish last in the league.
Having that base… does that help with why the fans here may be a little irritated?
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Editor:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
Yep
And when the examples of the 09/10 Avalanche and 10/11 Stars are used in comparison to this years Wild – look where they finished. Avs snuck in as the 8th and Stars finished 9th with 95 points. That would be right around where you guys put them – its just kind of a shock-factor to most outsider that the Wild are producing these results so far.
Good stuff.
Indeed, but the comparisons don’t fit, yet they continue to pound them. The Wild were in first place in the league, now second. According to the research, no team in 30 years has missed the playoffs after being in first in the league on Dec 1. But that is brushed aside, because the fancy numbers say the Wild should be in last place.
Right now, no one cares if they have a rough stretch and fall to 5, 6,7,8 by the end of the year. Minnesota hasn’t had playoff hockey in 3 years. Right now, even a taste would be better than nothing, and yet we continue to be told, “Don’t count on it, they suck.”
It comes down to people wanting to be happy about their favorite team’s success, and another group needing to find a way to make sure they can’t do that. It’s petty and it’s stupid. And if that person would ever give a straight answer even to himself, he would admit that.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Editor:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
Indeed, but the comparisons don’t fit,
But, in fact, they do fit. The 09/10 Avs and 10/11 Stars were on a similar points pace as the Wild are on now in the standings (only slightly less). Then as more games were played they began to slide, just as you’re accepting the Wild might.
As for the rest of you post, it just goes back to the value of that shock-factor that comes to those who understand these numbers when we look at teams like the Wild and New York Rangers this season.
When I look at the numbers for the Rangers I think “Wow, the Rangers are somehow getting wins when maybe they shouldn’t be – hopefully they begin to play better/change something so there won’t be a huge slide in the standings.” It’s just another perspective that you cannot see with your eyes.
Will I be upset when/if the Rangers start sliding? Of course! I want them to go 82-0, but these numbers, which correlate well as to how future results should come by, indicate they may not be the team they are when you look only at the standings.
And I’m not sure who brushed aside that stat about the playoffs – I’ve seen you mention it before. Is there a chance the Wild become the first team to miss the playoffs? Sure, but because the Wild have amassed so many points so soon, even if they play down to their metrics and then win a couple lucky games, they will still make it – proving that history stat true.
The only reason I disagree that the Wild would face the same slide as the Stars and Avs comes down to in-division games. The Wild are very good against their divisional foes. The Avs are not. The Stars have a VERY tough division.
I really do believe the Wild will slide to about 5th in the West at this point, and I will gladly take that. I don’t think they can hold off Vancouver forever, but the fact that the Avs and Flames are weaker teams does help the Wild. The Oilers have the inconsistency of youth, so that works in Minnesota’s favor, as the Wild are a much more veteran team.
You know you're a Wild fan if Spam Whoopie Gerald-buns comes up in conversation
Regressing all the way back to high school hockey.
Stars/Avs
When I’m speaking about the Stars and Avs I’m speaking about past seasons, as I’ve indicated with the years before the team name in the first paragraph of both responses.
And in all reality, 70% of an NHL teams regular season games are played outside of their division (4 opponents x 6 games = 24 total = ~30% of an 82 game schedule). So you can call divisional strength if you wish, but what really matters is consistent play – no matter what the opponent.
If you want to talk just conference, 64/82 games are played within the West or the East, so maybe you could make an argument for Western dominance, but that would be tough to do.
1/3 of the games is still a large percentage.
And I get that you’re talking about seasons past. Please don’t talk down to me. Even in past teams, the Avs and the Stars faltered a lot in 1/3 of their games. That will hurt any team, no matter the situation.
You know you're a Wild fan if Spam Whoopie Gerald-buns comes up in conversation
Regressing all the way back to high school hockey.
...
I’m not saying those games aren’t worth as much or anything, I’m just saying that in-division games are a smaller part of the schedule than the other 70%. In theory you could go .500 in your division but if you do well with the other third of your schedule the team will be just fine come playoff time.
It’s just another perspective that you cannot see with your eyes.
I do see it. I just don’t care about it. Big difference. I don’t have numbers to prove it, so numbers people won’t accept it. Sometimes in life, there is no proof, no citation available. You just know it. The numbers say otherwise, and that is fine. I am not telling people they can’t enjoy their numbers. What I am saying is I have an equal shot at being right, and no one seems to accept that.
The numbers say one thing. The attitude, play on the ice, and the way this team behaves tell me the numbers don’t matter. They are doing the little things right, and they play as a team. That can’t be quantified.
Again, I’m not saying they won’t slide to fifth or something, but if they do, the numbers folks will all be gloating saying “see, told you so” and ignoring that the numbers were still wrong.
And I’m not sure who brushed aside that stat about the playoffs – I’ve seen you mention it before.
Everyone except you. That would be the short version. Ha!
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Editor:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
I guess the point we are making is that still, with the standings as they are, and 30 years of history showing what they show, that people still call them the worst team in the league, and because the corsi number says so, that they will still wind up last in the league. It is mind boggling to see which stats are lent credence, and which are dismissed out of hand.
The hypocrisy from Zona both in his treatment of people who disagree as opposed to those who suck up and in his use of objective stats for subjective claims makes this an impossible debate to have.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Editor:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
Nope.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Editor:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
excuse me,excuse me
Number 1… boom….stat of the day brought to you by the Number 1.
Don't know what I'm fighting for, but I know what I'm fighting against
by PUTTINxONxTHExFOIL on Dec 1, 2011 6:04 PM CST via mobile reply actions
To everyone that feels wronged or slighted by last night's events
Please know that I am truly sorry you feel that way. The intent of this site is to make as many people feel as welcome as possible. However, I will not apologize for the conduct of the people in the comment section. I have read the complaints, and I get the feeling that many people did not like the jokes about “regression” and the battle about stats.
I went back and counted. Of 1173 comments, 138 mention the letters “regress.” Of those, the bulk of them are in signatures of community members. Only 17 mention it in the conversation. Of those, three are by someone using it in a non joking manner, and two more are referring to the tagline for the site, leaving 12 mentions of those letters. Twelve jokes on 1173 comments doesn’t seem overly exerting to me.
The other thing I read was that people feel we were not “classy” about things. First off, we have never claimed to be classy. I, for one, am far from it. I am bitter, sarcastic, and I hold a grudge for a very long time. I won’t speak for the other Wilderness staff, but I don’t rightly care if I offend someone. I apologize if that is harsh but it is the truth, and I hope you can respect that.
I am willing to bet a year’s paycheck that no one has read as many of the posts over at C&B as I have. I am willing to bet that no one, save for Nathan, has seen the behind the scenes BS that we have put up with from the editor of that site, nor the vitriol between the two sides that you all have not seen. Nor do I think that many of you have put in the time and research to fully understand the full background of the “bickering.” Not to make it sound like we are superior… far from it… but just to inform you that this is not simply a response to one post, or a reaction to just one event.
The jokes about regression are a reaction to the repeated claim that the Wild are the worst team in the league, and that an inevitable regression to the mean of numbers in the history of the NHL is the reason they know it will happen. It is in the same vein as our “Sorry Tom” jokes about hard work and our repeated jokes about people who say the Wild play a 1-4 forecheck and do nothing but trap, trap, trap.
Eventually, these repeated barbs become a source for mockery. The constant beating with the same droll insults results in a response. I ask why this response when there were dozens of Sorry Tom jokes. It’s the same thing.
Intermixed was a spirited discussion with several people who were trying to get across their vision of how statistics work. With the jokes flying, and the debate raging, I feel as though those two wholly separate events became intermixed. Unfairly, this made the debate appear to be more mockery, which is most certainly was not.
I cannot tell you that the jokes will end. In fact, I can be all but certain that they will. I certainly am not going to stop, and I am not going to ask others to stop. Both a discussion about stats and jokes about certain practitioners of the art can co-exist. If they cannot, then we have found ourselves taking things far too seriously.
Again, I am sorry that people feel something different happened here than would normally occur. Rest assured, I read every comment made here at Hockey Wilderness. Every. Single. One. I will not, ever, under any circumstances ask people not to express their views. Whether that be jokes, cussing, insults, or otherwise. The only thing that has ever made someone get banned is personal threats and spam. We are proud to be a place where Wild fans and the opposition can come together and have conversations much like would happen at the local watering hole.
Sometimes, some people will not enjoy those conversations. Sometimes, jokes will be made that offend. Sometimes, readers will fell like the site has gotten away from what we are. The content of the site has not changed. The comment section on one post was, for one night, a cathartic release of bitterness and sarcasm for a record number of participants.
While I feel the reaction to the jokes is overblown, I respect that some of you feel the way you do. I am not going to tell you to feel otherwise. However, I feel as though you are trying to lay some sort of blame at the feet of the people here at Hockey Wilderness, and that simply will not happen. If 1100+ comments want to be about jokes, then so be it. We will not tell people what they can and cannot say. I hope you can all appreciate that.
I know for a fact that the editorial staff could give a rip about stats. We both hate them. So, if jokes about them are going to be offensive, be forewarned.
One final time, if people are upset about the comment thread, I am sorry for that. I am not sorry for anything that was written, nor for allowing the people on the comment section to express their thoughts. This, being the longest comment in the history of HW, I’ll end here. I really feel this is over blown, and am sorry that people feel something wrong happened.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Editor:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
by BReynolds on Dec 1, 2011 10:42 PM CST reply actions 2 recs
Well said!
In the end, all this debate, arguement, humour and bitterness is part of why we love hockey. Long may it continue!
Regressing to the top of the league.
Dammit
Forgot to add this part back in after deleting it to add something else. Sigh.
Thank you all for expressing your thoughts. I don’t want that to stop. Even if I disagree with them, I want to “hear” them. If you are offended, you are more than welcome to say so. You will not be mocked for doing so, and I hope that is not the feeling given from this post.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Editor:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
by BReynolds on Dec 1, 2011 11:10 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
That is the exact sentiment to which I'm sorry you felt you had to post an apology at all
That is all there is to say about that.
Fuck it all if this Vancouver/Nashville game isn’t exciting as shit right now.
Being from Minnesota, it would be rude to put something clever here.
This
I'm that ''ignorant dumbass'' who writes with the ''whiny idiot homer'' over at Hockey Wilderness.
Twitter: BubbleWild48
This took me so long to read
that I regressed to the mean while doing it.
by J.J. from Kansas on Dec 2, 2011 8:04 AM CST up reply actions 5 recs
Winner
Post of the day. You get… well, absolutely nothing.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Editor:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
:)
I would like to point out the irony of the very statistical sounding first paragraph. Furthermore I’m totally behind the peeps who make HW run. This site has made this season of hockey 10x more enjoyable than would have otherwise been. And frankly to hell with the naysayers. I’m so tired of my favorite team being bashed repeatedly by other sites,bloggers, etc. If they dish, they better get ready to take. As far as stats, it sounds like a load of witchcraft to me ;)
Don't know what I'm fighting for, but I know what I'm fighting against
by PUTTINxONxTHExFOIL on Dec 1, 2011 11:22 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Fuck the stats.
Lets just watch some hockey.
(Bring on tomorrow night!)
Regressing to the top of the league.
yaaaaaaa buddy
Don't know what I'm fighting for, but I know what I'm fighting against
by PUTTINxONxTHExFOIL on Dec 1, 2011 11:26 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Burn the witch
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Editor:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
by BReynolds on Dec 1, 2011 11:28 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
i was hoping someone would get my monty python reference...
Don't know what I'm fighting for, but I know what I'm fighting against
by PUTTINxONxTHExFOIL on Dec 1, 2011 11:34 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Everyone saw this right?
From the Whitney post last night:
Biased
Fans of teams are just way too biased to their own team. PMB’s play was reckless which part of swinging your stick at a guys face is reckless and dangerous. Sure, the guy lifted his stick a bit but PMB defiantly did the swinging. Last time I checked slashing a guy in the logo on his jersey wasn’t an acceptable thing to do.
To me this isn’t a dirty play, not intentional at all, Whitney is just trying to get a shoulder on a guy cutting to the net. It is unfortunate that an injury occurred by this is not suspend able at all.
by sens2012 on Dec 1, 2011 4:31 PM CST
Followed by this:
Here is the report on the IP
Find IP Address Location for ‘My IP’ 142.244.166.50
Continent: North America (NA)
Country: Canada (CA)
State: Alberta
City: Edmonton
Postal Code: t6g2h1
ISP: University of Alberta
Organization: University of Alberta
Time zone: America/Edmonton
Nice try, Wade.
Basically, the guy singed up with a “objective” user name to argue his objectivity, but forgot that SBNation tracks IP addresses. Sigh.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Editor:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
by BReynolds on Dec 1, 2011 11:46 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
hahahah
It was hilarious.. I could tell he was a rat right away.. made my night
Don't know what I'm fighting for, but I know what I'm fighting against
by PUTTINxONxTHExFOIL on Dec 1, 2011 11:53 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Where are the statistics that showed:
The Sox can come back on the Yankees from 0-3.
The 8 Seed Warriors will beat the 1 Seed Mavs.
Doug Flutie throws a 65 yard hail mary with zero seconds
Reggie Miller scores 8 points in 9 seconds
The Penguins win 17 in a row
The Patriots go undefeated all the way to the Super Bowl…and lose
The “Miracle on Ice”
and a million other instances in sports which nobody ever thought possible.
Who cares what some guy with a calculator says will happen? It’s why they play, it’s why we’re entertained, and it’s why Batting Average, Save Percentage, Completion Rate and any other number is just a number.
Everybody knows the Ravens are better than the Jags, Titans and Seahawks….right?
Stuff happens.
by wild.twins.ravens.win on Dec 2, 2011 12:21 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
oh and the eagles
Every fantasy/stathead wet dream before the season started. They looked amazing tonight :)
Don't know what I'm fighting for, but I know what I'm fighting against
by PUTTINxONxTHExFOIL on Dec 2, 2011 12:36 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Some Clarifications
I believe I left my post a little too open to misinterpretation, for which I apologize. First and most important, I don’t feel like any of the issues I mentioned are serious issues or issues which would cause me to stop frequenting HW, and I think the same is true for anyone else who might agree with what I said. Second, I did not mean to say that I found issue with the sarcasm and snark. If I had issues with either of those, I wouldn’t last very long as a Minnesota sports fan. I, along with the vast majority of the readers of this blog I believe, quite enjoy both in general.
What I did have a small issue with was what I personally felt was too much (unconstructive) focus on all of this. Yes, the regression jokes and the stat bashing and all like things are fun, but for me, only to a certain point. I have felt in the past few days that HW has been dominated by anger and bitterness and lots of dead-end arguments over stats and other fans and the Oilers, etc., and I got a bit sick of it. I have not quantified what exactly gave me this feeling, but it is nevertheless the impression I got. And again, this is not something I have felt here at any other time, at least in the year I’ve been following this blog, during which the Wild were doing well at all. If there is snark and sarcasm and bad joking at HW, I usually think its warranted and enjoyable. This time, it was just distracting for me.
I also felt that stats guys and Oiler’s fans and stats in general were being unfairly demonized. Certainly there are people aplenty trying to use stats to bash the Wild and doing it badly and obnoxiously, and many of them reside at CnB. However, there are far more stats guys who are decent, intelligent people, there are a fair number of CnB posters who aren’t trolls, and there are a lot of useful stats. Attacking the entirety of stats, stat heads, and CnB whenever they come up is I think unwarranted and a distraction.
But, again, I’d like to say that I do not think this is at all a large issue. I’ve always enjoyed HW and still do. The details are just details.
My two cents....
Without reading all of the comments here…..
The bickering part of this has gotten to be a bit annoying to be honest, but what do you do, it’s an internet blog. On the bright side, I’ve noticed a lot more commenting around here lately so that is a plus. The joking and sarcasm are fine, but the flaring tempers and such is just silly to me. No offense to anybody, but I’ve just never found a point in arguing with some online username that I will never meet nor hang out with, but thats me.
As far as the stats vs standings…. personally, I could give a rats ass about what the stats presently are or what they predict. I enjoy watching my Wild play, period. When they win I could care less what fashion the win came in, that goal by Heater with 2 seconds left was exciting as all hell. Watching us come back from two down and go 6 rounds into a shootout to beat the Oilers a couple nights ago was an amazing game to watch.
Trying to come up with reasons why the Wild won’t sustain their winning ways and back it up with stats is completely pointless. Why? What is the point? Watch the damn game, whoever wins takes away the two points, period. I do look at stats sometimes but it’s more just to gauge where the team and/or players are with other players and teams, not to predict what’s going to happen later in the season. Kinda ruins the sport to me if you are trying to take the emotion out of the game. TEAMS win, not stats. There is no stat to show how the Wild are playing as a TEAM.
I could personally care less about the national media coverage too. I am a die hard Carolina Panthers fan too and although they have been pretty horrendous the past few years, (I am no bandwagon jumper) they have always flown under the radar too. I kinda like being a fan of the underdog team that punches the bully in the mouth and the national media just ignores it.
In other words, let the haters hate, just because some guy on a blog in Edmonton says the Wild are the worst team in the NHL based on statistics doesn’t mean that this team will collapse as the season progresses. There are still a lot of games to played and I will be watching as many as possible.
well said
And If the stats say the Wild are the worst team in the NHL but the Wild are at the top of the standings…I’ll take it! It’s better than the alternative! #InYeoITrust
"Pain heals. Chicks dig scars. Glory lasts forever." Shane Falco
"The Sharks got the better deal. They got a Burns. The Wild lost a Burns. You need a Burns to be good." KFAN's Jacques Lemaire 6-25-2011
by minnesotagirl71 on Dec 2, 2011 9:52 AM CST up reply actions
Exactly
It’s better than the alternative!
We could be leading the league in “stats predicting the final outcome of the season” and be last in the standings or sitting at the top of the NHL looking down at the other teams trying to mathematically figure out why the Wild are where they are….
I’ll take the latter.
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