FanPost

Wild Scoring Chances (as tracked by others)

You all know my stance on this whole Corsi issue. I guess time will tell. Anyway, presented here with only neutral comment (I promise), Wild scoring chances for the games played against the tracked teams (listed here, but with only the first six games for the Red Wings here, plus the Sharks here and the Stars here...some of you may want to check where that first URL is linking before clicking through).

Anyway, follow after the jump for the schedule of tracked games, including links, and the results. Home team listed second.

Oct 8 Jackets 2, Wild 4. Wild were outchanced 26-19 at even strength, 33-24 overall.

Oct 13 Oilers 1, Wild 2 (SO). Wild outchanced 17-11 and won 22-12 over all situations.

Oct 15 Red Wings 3, Wild 2 (OT). Wild were outchanced 14-8 at even strength and 16-8 overall.

Oct 18 Penguins 4, Wild 2 (not published online). Wild vastly outchanced Pittsburgh, 16-7 at evens, and 24-12 overall.

Oct 20 Wild 2, Oilers 1 (SO). Wild were outchanced 14-11 at evens and 19-14 overall.

Oct 22 Wild 2, Canucks 3 (OT). Wild were outchanced 13-10 at evens and 17-12 overall.

Oct 29 Red Wings 0, Wild 1 Not recorded.

Nov 1 Wild 2, Red Wings 1 (OT) Not recorded.

Nov 3 Canucks 1, Wild 5. Wild won at ES 22-18 and 29-24 overall.

Nov 8 Wild 3, Flames 0. Wild were outchanced 14-8 at evens, 23-14 overall.

Nov 10 Wild 1, Sharks 3. Wild were outchanced 12-4 at evens, 17-11 overall.

Nov 15 Wild 4, Jackets 2. Wild were outchanced 15-8 at even strength, 20-11 overall.

Nov 25 Oilers 5, Wild 2. Wild were outchanced 7-4 at even strength and 11-10 for the game.

Nov 27 Flames 5, Wild 2. Wild were outchances 12-9 at even strength, but won the game 16-14.

Nov 30 Wild 3, Oilers 2 (SO). Wild and Oilers were even, 13-13, at evens, and Wild took the game 24-15.


As you can see, Minnesota's record in these games is 7-4-2, a points percentage of 61.5%, compared to 66% on the season.

For some context, of these games:

Against outchancing-type teams--Vancouver (x2), San Jose, Red Wings, Penguins

Against roughly even teams or teams I cannot get a read on--Flames (x2), Oilers (x4), Blue Jackets (x2)

Against outchanced-type teams--

Tough break for the Wild here. The only sub-par teams (this season) that are tracked are Carolina and Washington, maybe Dallas as well, as far as I know. Even among the middle group, I'd bet on both the Flames and Jackets outchancing their opposition.

Of the missing games:

Against outchancing-type teams--Tampa Bay, St. Louis (x2), Red Wings (x2)

Against roughly even teams or teams I cannot get a read on--Nashville, Colorado, Los Angeles, Ottawa

Against outchanced-type teams--Anaheim (x2), New York Islanders

Because each team has a different tracker--and the first game with the high totals was the writer's first crack at counting chances--I added a count where I weighted each game equally, not by amount of scoring chances (normally, they are weighted proportional to the amount of chances). You can view the calculations here.

Average scoring chance percentage at even strength: 45.40% 47.14% 46.56%

Average scoring chance percentage: 46.59% 48.26% 47.11%

Scoring chance percentage at even strength (conventional): 45.36% 47.19% 46.46%

Scoring chance percentage (conventional): 46.68% 48.36% 47.57%

I want to add that it seemed like the Wild were getting 4 or 5 chances on special teams each game, which is a pretty solid amount. I think that means the power play is around league average at worst and just not getting the bounces, so it should be safe to expect that shooting percentage (and efficiency) on the power play to go up quite a bit. By shots, Minnesota is 9th at 5-on-4.

Take from this what you will--on the one hand, if you played better in a game, you probably won, so this snapshot may overestimate the Wild's true talent; on the other hand, if you led for a lot of time, you'd be sitting back and depress your scoring chance ratio that way, so this snapshot may be an underestimate.

The opinions posted here are not those of Hockey Wilderness

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