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HW Fantasy League Draft Analysis

Hello Hockey Wilderness readers!  I've been relatively absent from the comment section lately and I haven't made a fanpost in forever, so I thought I'd get some lively discussion going on something very hockey-related:  fantasy hockey!  

Fantasy sports is probably the most important thing in life.  This is indisputable fact.  Nothing compares to it, not even the birth of your firstborn child or your measly college degree.  That's why you should drop everything you're doing,  or even thinking about doing, and delve into the mysterious and magical world of fantasy hockey with me, ADN, your tour guide on this fantastical journey.

Star-divide

So are you pumped?!  I sure am.

This draft analysis is going to be very simple.  I'm going to split it into two parts: the steals and the reaches.  My reasoning for doing this is that fantasy drafts aren't just about the quality of players that you drafted;  it's also about the timing of which you drafted them.  I could analyze every single team's draft, but in an 18-team league that'd just be silly, so I've devised this 2 part system to simplify the process and see some individual picks that could make or break a team.  I'll go round by round to see which teams got a diamond in the rough or a penny in a jewelry box. Ya dig?

Part 1: The Steals

Round 1: Henrik Lundvist (Pick 5) -- Tutu Many Slapshots
Analysis: In all honesty, I think this was the right place for Lundqvist to go (after AO, D. Sedin, Stamkos, and Perry). He shouldn't have necessarily gone higher or lower, making him neither a steal or reach. However, in a huge league like this one, goalies are at a premium, and Lundqvist is arguably the best fantasy goalie.  He's improved his numbers each year for the past three years, and I don't see any reason why he would slow down now.  11 shutouts?!  Well worth the price paid for him at 5th overall pick.

Round 2: Henrik Zetterberg (Pick 30) -- Datsyukian Dekes
Analysis:  A PPG pace and LW eligibility?! He may be out of his peak years, but considering how shallow the LW pool is plus his ability to accrue faceoff wins, 30th is an awesome place to get him.

Round 3: Rick Nash (Pick 50) -- Komissaari eramaa
Analysis: Easily should've gone higher.  I'd put his value pretty close to Zetterberg's but with even higher upside.  Having Jeff Carter as his center will probably ratchet up his point totals back to the high 70's and his PP totals will go up as well.  I think Nash could be an early 2nd rounder in this league, so this is an excellent value for him.

Round 5: Danny Boyle (Pick 81) -- Zombies
Analysis: Boyle is a high quality #1 defenseman in this league.  Defenseman were falling pretty far overall, but at #80 I'd say Boyle was the slickest pickup.  Getting a dman that will probably put up more points than a 2nd tier forward (in this deep of a league) is a huge value and could pay major dividends to Zombies' team.

Round 7: David Krejci (Pick 124) -- Redheaded Step Child
Analysis:  There's just too much upside here for this guy to be lasting this long.  He's going to be the #1 center in Boston with Savard out (for possibly forever), and he could easily put up a 70 point season.  There's very few players this late in the draft that can accomplish that, and that's why this pick was a steal.

Round 8: Our very own PMB (Pick 137) -- Puttin on the Foil
Analysis: Usually Wild players values get drafted wayyy too soon in the HW league, but this is one of two exceptions (I'll go over the other one a little later).  PMB is another player whose upside is enormous.  I think he could possibly go into the mid-60's point-wise, and at this point in the draft (as mentioned before), that's huge.  I think Grabner and Neal were also good choices in this round, but PMB takes the cake as the steal.

Round 9: Alexander Edler (Pick 151) -- Datsyukian Dekes
Analysis: Edler is by far one of the steals of the entire draft.  With Ehrhoff out of his hair, Edler is the main PP guy in Vancouver and is set up to get some amazing point totals.  If not for his injury, I feel like Edler would be rated much higher.  He was on pace for 53 points and 13 goals last year when he wasn't injured. You're probably not even going to find a forward that will do that well at this point in the draft!

Round 10: Nathan Horton (Pick 180) -- Finnish Your Czechs
Analysis: Horton is a guy that will do it all for your fantasy team.  Goals, PIM, Hits, SOG are all categories he's done well in.  And the upside for him is high considering he's yet to enter his prime and he plays on a solid team.  And to think that 179 players were taken before him!  He won't light the world on fire, but he has the potential to punish you for not picking him up earlier than this.

Round 11: Our very own Zidlicky (Pick 195) -- Komissaari eramaa
Analysis:  Zids is always an underrated fantasy asset, but not quite to this extent (especially in a league full of Wild homers!)  Even if he isn't the best defensemen on the real ice, he will be the main PP guy (the Wild's PP could be very dangerous this year) and will get plenty of ice time as a veteran on a young defensive corps.   40 points could almost be a lock, and there's 50 point upside here (unlikely, but theres a chance!) with Burns gone from the team.

Steal of the Draft: Alexander Edler
Good work Datsyukian Dekes, that was a great pickup!

So what do you all think, Hockey Wilderness?  Who was your "Steal of the Draft"? Let's get this party/discussion started!

P.S. -- Part 2: The Reaches will be available sometime in the near future.  Thanks for reading!!!

The opinions posted here are not those of Hockey Wilderness

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Nice post!

If by steal for Lundqvist, you mean he was STOLEN from me, then yeah. It forced me to pick Luongo with the next pick :(

JS, Champion of the first ever Hockey Wilderness Playoff Bracket Challenge! WHOOOOOOOO!

Author, watchdog, enforcer and french-canadian connection for Hockey Wilderness.

twitter: BubbleWild48

by JSLandry on Sep 29, 2011 8:48 PM CDT reply actions  

:D

2010-2011 Minnesota Wild Fantasy League Champion
President/CEO of the Tutu Many Slapshots fantasy hockey club

by Chris Winner on Sep 30, 2011 7:35 AM CDT up reply actions  

My team makes me feel bad.

It really does. Oh, it’s better now that I dropped a bunch of the bums that the binge-drinking auto-drafter drunk dialed, but it still makes me feel bad. Oh well.

by Krotz the Wall on Sep 30, 2011 10:17 AM CDT reply actions  

I think next year even if I’m attending the draft I will be ranking the players myself. That way I won’t forget about any players that yahoo misranked.

2010-2011 Minnesota Wild Fantasy League Champion
President/CEO of the Tutu Many Slapshots fantasy hockey club

by Chris Winner on Sep 30, 2011 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

I would do this too

but Yahoo’s ranking system is absurdly inconvenient. When you rank in ESPN you can just drag and drop, but yahoo makes you do some kind of complicated individually populated list.

Owner of The Haves & Havlats in the Hockey Wilderness Fantasy League
Champion of the Hockey Wilderness Fantasy League

by ADN on Sep 30, 2011 4:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

Zidlicky

50 points isn’t exactly a pedestrian number for Zid, but it’s quite attainable if he plays all 82. If your league has PP points Zid is the biggest steal in round 11, if no +/- he should have gone about 4 rounds higher. Great pick!

by Arnie on Sep 30, 2011 5:09 PM CDT reply actions  

Well...

There are some pretty big modifiers when we’re talking about Zids. There are some pretty big question marks about Zids durability, and in his mid-30s, he’s getting much more fragile. While the league does track PP and no +/-, it also tracks hits, blocks, PIM, all stats that Zids tracks poorly in. Fact of the matter is that IF Zids stays healthy, and IF he produces at that 40 to 50 points, he might be decent 2nd or 3rd D man.

by Krotz the Wall on Oct 3, 2011 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions  

the durability is a legit concern

but the hits, blocks, and even PIM can easily be found in the free agent pool of defensemen, points simply cannot.

Owner of The Haves & Havlats in the Hockey Wilderness Fantasy League
Champion of the Hockey Wilderness Fantasy League

by ADN on Oct 3, 2011 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions  

Sure, if you single any of those categories out...

However, there are many D men that will push 30 to 40 points, who will get a whole lot more hits, blocks, and probably penalties than Zids. That evens things out a bit. I’m not saying that he’s a d-man to ignore. I’m just saying that he isn’t going to be in the top third of the league with our fantasy set up.

by Krotz the Wall on Oct 4, 2011 8:45 AM CDT up reply actions  

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