Wilderness Walk for 1-17-2012: Game Day Edition

by BReynolds on Jan 17, 2012 10:43 AM CST in Wilderness Walks

Cal Clutterbuck looks over the shoulder of Ray Emery in the Search for Pride event 2012.

Who's got money on the Wild tonight? Just curious who I should be laughing at.

There are so many factors working against the Wild in tonight's game, that only a hugemongous mental breakdown by the Flyers gives the Wild any chance. Not to be a negative Nancy, but is there anything at all in the past three weeks that has given someone the impression that the Wild can keep up with a team like the Flyers? That's a real question. Has anyone got anything?

I have a feeling most Wild fans are taking tonight off. It's just a feeling. I could be wrong. Hope to see the comment thread full tonight, of course. Not counting on it, but would love to see you here to at least commiserate.

Short Walk today. Enjoy.

Wild News

Minnesota Wild Stuck In Tough Spot After Strong Start Fizzles - SBNation.com - Bruce explains the situation well over on the NHL Hub.

For captainless Wild, postseason is now | StarTribune.com - Indeed. Win or go home at this point. So, you know, start packing.

Wild's Mikko Koivu likely out until all-star break because of upper-body injury - TwinCities.com - Yep.

Officially, Wild calling Koivu week-to-week | StarTribune.com - Gotta love the week-to-week tag.

Enemy News

Philly Flyers, Philadelphia Flyers, Flyers, Flyers News - Philly.com - Newspaer from the City of Brotherly love.

Broad Street Hockey - Your SBNation home for Flyers fun.

Off the Trail

What We Learned: Why the West should start being very afraid of the Los Angeles Kings | Puck Daddy - Yahoo! Sports - A few of you read this yesterday, so let me just tell you this. Lambert's job is to troll fan bases. Everything he writes in every location he writes, is meant to do nothing more than make people mad. If you buy into it, he wins. Now, in the past, he has been fairly entertaining. At some point along the way, he ran out of material, started writing for too many sites, or his creative processes shut off. I like a joke in the direction of the Wild as much as anyone else (I really do), but these posts have fallen back to relying on the same old jokes. I keep waiting to tune in and see that the Wild are a boring trap team.

Meh. Buy in and get angry if you wish. I've reached the point of pity for the guy. He's trying hard to be bitter and funny, and he's failing miserably at it.

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Comments

Looks like we'll be seeing some interesting line combinations.

Johnson – Cullen – Heatley
Powe – Brodziak – Setoguchi
Clutterbuck – Peters -McIntyre
Really Spare Parts Line (Wellman, Staubitz, McMillan) ?

by Krotz the Wall on Jan 17, 2012 10:57 AM CST reply actions

I really wish Yeo would address why Wellman doesn’t get a consistent shot in the top 6. There must be something he doesn’t like, because with all these injuries it should be a prime chance to give Wellman an extended look. I wonder if Yeo doesn’t feel like he already got a good enough feel for Wellman last year in Houston, and just is not that impressed with the kid? I have a hard time digesting the fact that Powe and Johnson are top 6 wingers while Wellman, who was a big college signing, supposed to be skilled and have a scoring touch, is relegated to fourth line? Hopefully this is just a temporary line arrangement, but it seems weird Wellman isn’t given more opportunities, deserved or not at this point.

by Farva077 on Jan 17, 2012 11:03 AM CST up reply actions

Wellman showed chemistry with Cullen

Why not have him up there with him? Real head-scratcher.

I'm that ''ignorant dumbass'' who writes with the ''whiny idiot homer'' over at Hockey Wilderness.

Twitter: BubbleWild48

by JSLandry on Jan 17, 2012 11:10 AM CST up reply actions

I would imagine that two possibilities are in play...

Wellman’s upper body injury is still bothering him and preventing his shot and effectiveness. Or Yeo just didn’t see Wellman being the answer on wing opposite Heatley.

I’d be more interested to see Wellman – Cullen – Setoguchi and Johnson – Brodziak – Heatley myself.

by Krotz the Wall on Jan 17, 2012 11:13 AM CST up reply actions

Well, I like Johnson's game a whole lot better than Wellman's.

And as a counter to Cullen and Heatley, Johnson’s probably the best option outside of Clutterbuck. Yeo is pretty much just moving Brodziak and Powe up and paring them with Seto in a speed and grit line. Clutterbuck gets to be the scoring touch on the cobbled together 3rd line.

Wellman… I just don’t know. While he doesn’t seem to be given much of a chance, he also hasn’t looked like he’s going to step up and force the team to consider him either. We don’t know how much he might still be hurting too. He had a lot more ice time before coming back from that injury… maybe it’s still bothering him and he’s on the ice doing what he can to help the team. I don’t know. I do imagine that Yeo will try to roll the lines more, so all the lines might be a little closer in ice time.

by Krotz the Wall on Jan 17, 2012 11:11 AM CST up reply actions

I agree with you

However, Johnson’s game isn’t built for 1st line duty. I get the need to spread the offense, but at this point, it’s spread so thin that there doesn’t even seem to be any dangerous combos.

I'm that ''ignorant dumbass'' who writes with the ''whiny idiot homer'' over at Hockey Wilderness.

Twitter: BubbleWild48

by JSLandry on Jan 17, 2012 11:14 AM CST up reply actions

No

but neither is Wellman’s. Not really. I imagine that Yeo is trying to pair guys by type of game. Johnson will be there to provide space and perhaps try to work him low and closer to the net.

Also, I would imagine that the best the Wild can do is roll lines 2a 2b 3… which would probably score out as 2b-3a-3b. The team’s only hope is to play a complete energy game, and try to pair energy players (good fore checkers, and players willing to get into the dirty areas and battle for the puck, with a guy who can maybe bury that puck). The only way to win right now is to put pressure on and not let up… and hope to get lucky and capitalize on the other teams’ mistakes.

by Krotz the Wall on Jan 17, 2012 11:25 AM CST up reply actions

Russo had Heatley on the LW

Any reason he shouldn’t be a RW now that he and Seto are on different lines?

by cgp711 on Jan 17, 2012 11:40 AM CST up reply actions

Yeo often gives Heatley the choice.

Editor:Hockey Wilderness Swarm Beat Writer:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN

Master of unsustainable passive regression.

by BReynolds on Jan 17, 2012 2:46 PM CST up reply actions

I probably wouldn't put money on the team tonight

but I will be watching every minute. It will be interesting to see if any of those crazy line combos work. We are playing against a head case (Universe) so there’s that shred of hope. Of course who better to play against then us in our current situation to help with his confidence.

by HonorableH on Jan 17, 2012 11:01 AM CST reply actions

The Flyers are nowhere near unbeatable

Last week they lost to Nashville and Ottawa and won by a goal apiece in games against the Islanders and Carolina.

Pronger (obviously) and van Riemsdyk will be out tonight, and since Jagr pulled his groin, he, Giroux, and Hartnell have combined for just three points (one apiece) over the last five games.

I think the Flyers are probably the better team, but they’re no unbeatable juggernaut.

@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey

by Eric T. on Jan 17, 2012 11:10 AM CST reply actions

Well

Maybe with Koivu, they’d have a chance, but who the hell is going to score? The only way they beat any team at this point is if they rediscover their defensive game, which was so strong during November.

I'm that ''ignorant dumbass'' who writes with the ''whiny idiot homer'' over at Hockey Wilderness.

Twitter: BubbleWild48

by JSLandry on Jan 17, 2012 11:12 AM CST up reply actions

Meh. I get what you’re saying about the long run, but any given game, y’know? They did just score four on San Jose a couple nights ago, right?

@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey

by Eric T. on Jan 17, 2012 11:27 AM CST up reply actions

Niemi was unbelievably weak on three of those goals though

And it took a Koivu shootout goal to finish them off.

I'm that ''ignorant dumbass'' who writes with the ''whiny idiot homer'' over at Hockey Wilderness.

Twitter: BubbleWild48

by JSLandry on Jan 17, 2012 11:49 AM CST up reply actions

I hear what you're saying though

We can’t help but be pessimistic right now. Never good news to lose one of your only offensive powers to injury.

I'm that ''ignorant dumbass'' who writes with the ''whiny idiot homer'' over at Hockey Wilderness.

Twitter: BubbleWild48

by JSLandry on Jan 17, 2012 11:49 AM CST up reply actions

It’s kind of like how Philly lost Pronger. The guy played all the big minutes, and he’s 100% impossible to replace internally. The media went hysterical after Pronger was ruled out, so I’m guessing Philadelphia understands how tough it is to lose a captain that’s a total heart and soul kind of player.

You know you're a Wild fan if Spam Whoopie Gerald-buns comes up in conversation
Regressing all the way back to high school hockey.
Mikael Granlund = Suomi Savior

by JDesthubert on Jan 17, 2012 11:51 AM CST up reply actions

I guess, but the Pronger hysteria is mostly because people think his career is over (and who could ever foresee that a 38-year-old might not play forever) — people are looking for a long-term solution (OMG TEH WEBERZ).

Even when Pronger and Giroux and Couturier and Schenn were all hurt, it was never a “we’ll never win another game” kind of hysteria, but I guess if those injuries had come in the middle of a losing streak, it might have been different.

@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey

by Eric T. on Jan 17, 2012 12:05 PM CST up reply actions

Well

If the Wild were as deep as the Flyers are, there wouldn’t be a panic either. Did you take a look at the projected lines for the Wild right now? Rather disgusting. Also, not only is Koivu out, but Latendresse and Bouchard are as well. On an offense-starved team, this is massive.

I'm that ''ignorant dumbass'' who writes with the ''whiny idiot homer'' over at Hockey Wilderness.

Twitter: BubbleWild48

by JSLandry on Jan 17, 2012 12:12 PM CST up reply actions

Disgusting is putting it nicely JS

by cgp711 on Jan 17, 2012 12:15 PM CST up reply actions

I know

I just love my team too much ;)

I'm that ''ignorant dumbass'' who writes with the ''whiny idiot homer'' over at Hockey Wilderness.

Twitter: BubbleWild48

by JSLandry on Jan 17, 2012 12:31 PM CST up reply actions

If Bryz starts for you tonight, then the Flyers are definitely beatable. No offense to your fans or your team, but that dude has not been as advertised.
Honestly, what is with Philly and their unusual goalie problems? Did Ron Hextall leave some curse behind?

You know you're a Wild fan if Spam Whoopie Gerald-buns comes up in conversation
Regressing all the way back to high school hockey.
Mikael Granlund = Suomi Savior

by JDesthubert on Jan 17, 2012 11:12 AM CST up reply actions

I’m not worried about Bryz yet (although I never thought he — or any goalie — was worth that contract). He’s had other stretches just as bad over the last two years, as have other top goalies.

Also, the “unusual goalie problems” thing is massively overblown narrative. Last year, Bobrovsky and Boucher combined for a .915 save percentage — and even in the playoffs the ridiculous goalie carousel was more a case of coaching overreaction than bad goaltending (Bob played great in the first game, gave up two goals where he had no chance and one that he could’ve stopped but was by no means soft, and got demoted to third string, behind Michael Freaking Leighton). Biron was well-above average for them. Cechmanek was outstanding — a Vezina runner-up.

And yet, like bad Philly fans or the boring Minnesota trap, the narrative endures…

@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey

by Eric T. on Jan 17, 2012 11:26 AM CST up reply actions

True

I guess the narrative gets overblown because of Laviolette having no faith in the goalies during the postseason. Had it been me, I would have stuck with Bob. He got the Flyers to the playoffs with a very good regular season. The kid deserved the opportunity to be the starter through the postseason.

You know you're a Wild fan if Spam Whoopie Gerald-buns comes up in conversation
Regressing all the way back to high school hockey.
Mikael Granlund = Suomi Savior

by JDesthubert on Jan 17, 2012 11:33 AM CST up reply actions

Agreed. And seriously, if you go through the goals Bob gave up, they was very little he could have done.

I can understand pulling the goalie to wake the team up, but demoting him to third string suggests they had way too little faith in him going in (which also explains the summer moves) and suffered badly from confirmation bias: they expected him to struggle, were looking for struggles, and even after an outstanding performance in game 1 they were all too ready to say “damn, I knew it” after one period of game 2.

@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey

by Eric T. on Jan 17, 2012 11:39 AM CST up reply actions

Whatever happened to Cechmanek?

Always thought he was better than advertised.

by cgp711 on Jan 17, 2012 11:39 AM CST up reply actions

Cechmanek was outstanding. But much like with Bob last year, there were people who never felt comfortable with him because of his style, and when the team shat the bed in the playoffs, he took the brunt of the blame.

The team didn’t score more than two goals in any game that series (2003, vs Ottawa) and Cechmanek had two shutouts, but somehow it was his fault that they lost in 6. Last year, they put up seven goals in four games against Boston and it was the goalies’ fault.

Pure confirmation bias.

@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey

by Eric T. on Jan 17, 2012 11:45 AM CST up reply actions

Well at least your team has made the playoffs year after year and will this year too.

We are just trying to find a way to make it through the rest of the season and pray next year is better.

by cgp711 on Jan 17, 2012 12:16 PM CST up reply actions

Understood. The Flyers are frustrating as all hell, but (as I keep telling those who want Andy Reid fired), being consistently competitive really isn’t a bad thing.

@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey

by Eric T. on Jan 17, 2012 12:51 PM CST up reply actions

Huh. So Bryz’s goals against are ones that he could not have done anything about, but when I say the same about Harding and Backstrom over at BSH, I am told I am wrong, and they are just reverting to career averages? Got it. Awesome.

Editor:Hockey Wilderness Swarm Beat Writer:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN

Master of unsustainable passive regression.

by BReynolds on Jan 17, 2012 2:48 PM CST up reply actions

Read it again.

I said that there wasn’t much Bobrovsky could have done about the three goals in the first period of the second game of the playoffs last year. Of course any given shot can be easy or tough to stop, but it’s a sample size issue: a guy can see particularly easy or tough shots for a game, or a brief stretch, but in the long run it evens out and team defense doesn’t appear to influence save percentage by more than a couple tenths of a percent.

And if you look up a couple comments higher, you’ll see that I take exactly that perspective on Bryzgalov’s current struggles: he’s struggling right now and the Philly fans are generally ready to throw him off a cliff, but it just looks like standard variance to me and I expect him to revert to his career average in the long run.

I’m not sure where you see inconsistency in those positions.

@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey

by Eric T. on Jan 17, 2012 3:16 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

I’m not sure where you see inconsistency in those positions

And explaining it to you is a complete waste of time, as we have learned. You, and your stat friends, have your heads so buried in numbers, you cannot see any other perspective. It’s cool, though. If you enjoy it, I’m glad, because it bores the hell out of me.

Editor:Hockey Wilderness Swarm Beat Writer:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN

Master of unsustainable passive regression.

by BReynolds on Jan 17, 2012 3:39 PM CST up reply actions

Well yeah

Regression only applies to the Wild. Haven’t you been listening?

I'm that ''ignorant dumbass'' who writes with the ''whiny idiot homer'' over at Hockey Wilderness.

Twitter: BubbleWild48

by JSLandry on Jan 17, 2012 3:16 PM CST up reply actions

I’m assuming that’s tongue in cheek, but it’s still decidedly wrong.

Last year in mid-January I cautioned people that the Flyers were running well above expectation on their shooting percentages.

At that time, the Flyers were 28-11-5, with 152 goals in 44 games (3.45 per game). From there, they went 19-12-7, with 107 goals in 38 games (2.82 per game).

This year, I’ve been saying that the Flyers’ shooting percentage was again unsustainably high, but that their save percentage was lower than it should be and the results were reasonable, for what it’s worth.

@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey

by Eric T. on Jan 17, 2012 3:23 PM CST up reply actions

Ah. Yet another “Look how right I was” comment from a stathead. I’m… shocked.

Editor:Hockey Wilderness Swarm Beat Writer:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN

Master of unsustainable passive regression.

by BReynolds on Jan 17, 2012 3:39 PM CST up reply actions

Yeah, don't worry, it was dripping in sarcasm

We’ve been in a feud with stat-heads all season. To their everlasting joy, the Wild have indeed dropped a few cogs in the standings, but they go on about comparing the Wild to past teams. Past teams are past teams, there’s no way to compare teams when the context isn’t the same. Lately, sure, the defense has been dismal, but injuries played a huge role in the Wild’s current free-fall.

We knew the Wild had no shot in hell staying in first place, but what frustrates me is that people refuse to look at how the goalies’ performances have stayed sensibly the same, but they just haven’t had the offensive support because the Wild are always missing 2-3-4 top 6 players, and no matter what anyone says, that makes a hell of a difference for a team already struggling to score more than 2 goals a game.

I'm that ''ignorant dumbass'' who writes with the ''whiny idiot homer'' over at Hockey Wilderness.

Twitter: BubbleWild48

by JSLandry on Jan 17, 2012 3:40 PM CST up reply actions

Most stat-heads

Also like to talk about the Wild as far as regression goes, but they’ll never talk about their own team, like it’s only possible for the Wild to regress.

I'm that ''ignorant dumbass'' who writes with the ''whiny idiot homer'' over at Hockey Wilderness.

Twitter: BubbleWild48

by JSLandry on Jan 17, 2012 3:46 PM CST up reply actions

I’m sure that’s true of some, but I suspect it’s less true than you think — you might just not happen to encounter the articles where the Caps bloggers talk about the Caps’ flaws.

One of the easiest articles to write is to show how the fans’ current wild optimism/pessimism is unfounded, because (at least from the statguy’s perspective) fans tend to overreact to the last 10 games.

@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey

by Eric T. on Jan 17, 2012 3:53 PM CST up reply actions

With that being said, I’ll agree that there were about 18x more articles about the possibility of the Wild regressing than about most of the other possibilities. For whatever reason, you guys became this year’s Hot Topic.

@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey

by Eric T. on Jan 17, 2012 3:57 PM CST up reply actions

No one could rightfully explain how the Wild ended up as the #1 team. Since they couldn’t come up with an explanation, they chose to write about how it wasn’t a sustainable pace based on the numbers. The only stat that the Wild could fall back on was the win-loss record and, to a degree, goal differential. All of the “advanced stats” pointed to the Wild being the 3rd worst team in the West.

You know you're a Wild fan if Spam Whoopie Gerald-buns comes up in conversation
Regressing all the way back to high school hockey.
Mikael Granlund = Suomi Savior

by JDesthubert on Jan 17, 2012 4:44 PM CST up reply actions

Yeah, I know you have. I purposefully didn’t bring any of that up when I dropped by here this morning because I figured y’all had had plenty of it forced on you and that you’d come to BSH if you wanted to endure some more of it.

I actually think the differences between the camps were originally more about tone than content, more about perspective than prediction. The statheads early on were saying “they’re a bad team but have banked a lot of points with this hot streak and might hang on to make the playoffs” while HW was saying “they’re not an elite team but are better than people are giving them credit for and should finish somewhere around 6th-8th.”

The team has obviously had some bad luck (both injuries and elsewhere) lately — no team is 2-13 caliber in the long run, and even the I-told-you-so’s among us should admit that.

@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey

by Eric T. on Jan 17, 2012 3:47 PM CST up reply actions

I would love to see the Wild come out tonight and punch the Flyers in the mouth. The first 5 minutes tonight will dictate how the next 1-2 months are going to be.

2010-2011 Minnesota Wild Fantasy League Champion
President/CEO of the Tutu Many Slapshots fantasy hockey club

by Chris Winner on Jan 17, 2012 12:38 PM CST reply actions