Defensmen on the move...what kind of value is out there?
The trade deadline is quickly approaching, and some teams have already gotten a jump on the frenzy that surrounds February 27th. Defensemen, in particular, have been moving around. Teams looking to take that next step are loading up on the blueline, as there is a shortage of top-6 forwards on the market thus far. Prices are being inflated by the lack of sellers versus the high amount of buyers.
Enter the Wild. The team from Minnesota seems to have a few extra defensmen that could use a new home. There are teams that could use some help on the blueline. Make the jump with me as we look at deals that have been struck, defensmen the Wild might move, and what kind of value the fans should expect.
Done Deals
Nicklas Grossman traded to Philadelphia
In what was the first important trade near the deadline, the Philadelphia Flyers acquired Nicklas Grossman from the Dallas Stars. In exchange, Dallas received a 2012 2nd-round pick (from Minnesota) and a 2013 3rd-round pick. Grossman won't wow anyone on the scoresheet with points (41 in 333 games), but he'll give steady, reliable minutes, help a team's PK, and keep the opposition's middle-six forwards off the board.
Hal Gill traded to Nashville
In a move necessary to improve their playoff fortunes, the Predators sent Blake Geoffrion, undrafted prospect Robert Slaney, and a 2012 2nd-round pick to Montreal in exchange for Hal Gill. Also included in the deal was a conditional 2013 5th-round pick to Nashville if Geoffrion plays 40 or more games for Montreal next year. The Canadiens got a 2nd-round pick and two mid-level prospects for a pylon that has playoff experience. Gill will help relieve some PK stress off of Suter and Weber while helping with deep offensive teams. Like Grossman, Gill won't be called on to add offensive support. He's really a 3rd-pair, PK guy with size.
Pavel Kubina traded to Philadelphia
Adding Grossman wasn't enough for a Philadelphia team that has had some defensive struggles. Once GM Steve Yzerman announced he was a seller, the Flyers went out and swapped a conditional 2nd-round draft pick (2012 or 2013) and a 2013 4th-round draft pick. Unlike the first two, Kubina does have some offensive game that he can bring to the table. He probably won't be asked to play too much powerplay time with Kimmo Timonen and Andrej Meszaros on the top pair, but he could slot in on the 2nd PP unit with Carle.
Who the Wild can deal
Marek Zidlicky
He's the first name that fans want shipped out. The public airing of grievances has destroyed any good will that may have been left. Zidlicky wants out slightly less than the fans want him gone. The questions then become:
1) Who takes Zidlicky in a trade?
2) What value does #3 have?
Well, there are plenty of teams that need a powerplay specialist/quarterback.
GM Dave Tallon is looking for extra offense for the Panthers, and the shortage of top-6 forwards at the deadline might force him to look at adding offensive defensmen. The Detroit Red Wings are still looking to replace the points and puck-moving abilities of Brian Rafalski, and have an unusually mediocre powerplay. The Los Angeles Kings are hanging on by a thread and need more points. For a team that was a pre-season favorite after the addition of Mike Richards, the Kings struggle worse than the Wild to score goals. Their powerplay is abysmal considering the talent. The New York Rangers, the top team in the NHL, need a lot of help on the powerplay. At 14.3%, the Rangers boast the 4th worst powerplay in the NHL.
These are just a few of the playoff contenders that could use an offensive minded defensman who can quarterback a powerplay. There are more teams that could use a guy like Zidlicky, so now we have to find out what he's worth. The three above trades do offer some insight, but to get a good market value of a guy like Zidlicky, it's smarter to look back one year at the Thomas Kaberle deal to Boston. The Bruins had to give up prospect Joe Colborne, a 2011 1st-round pick, and a conditional 2012 2nd-round draft pick.
Now, you might be saying at this point that Zidlicky is damaged goods and has ruined his value. That may be so, but let's look at some recent deals involving less than savory characters. Mike Richards was sent to L.A. in exchange for Wayne Simmonds, Brayden Schenn, and a 2012 2nd-round draft pick. Jeff Carter was dealt to Columbus for Jakub Voracek, a 2011 1st-round draft pick, and a 2011 3rd-round draft pick. Kyle Turris, who flat-out refused to join Phoenix, was dealt to Ottawa for David Rundblad and a 2012 2nd-round pick. These three had character questions surrounding them, yet desperate teams will run the risk for the potential rewards.
Based on how the prospects and trades that I mentioned above, a 1st-round pick and a prospect are well within range for a player like Zidlicky.
Greg Zanon
A player like Zanon is probably closer in value to Hal Gill. He can play as a 3rd-pairing defensman, block shots, and help improve a weak penalty kill. Zanon lacks the Stanley Cup Final experience that Gill has, but Zuperman has still seen postseason action. He's a tough veteran who has played on a cracked foot, so teams know that the drive and heart are there.
For Zanon, a 2nd-round pick and a late pick at the deadline isn't totally out of the question. Both Grossman and Gill got back at least a 2nd-round pick (in the Gill trade, that would be Geoffrion). Asking for two picks for a guy like Zanon seems reasonable. He is usually that final defensive piece teams need. Teams like the Sharks, Capitals, Blackhawks, and Panthers could all use a major boost on the PK, so Zanon could easily find a home with any of these teams making a late push.
Mike Lundin
Looking at Lundin's style, body of work, and age, you have to believe the asking price is basically the same as Grossman's. Lundin may be a little less of a specific PK specialist, but he is a little better than Grossman in 5-on-5 hockey. Lundin has been the victim of the youth movement and circumstance in Minnesota, but he could easily find a home as a #4 defensman on a team like Florida. Chicago could also come calling in an attempt to replace either Scott or O'Donnell with a younger player who skates better.
Based on the Grossman deal, a 2nd and a 3rd has to be the starting asking price. He gained valuable playoff experience with Tampa Last year, so he has youth and experience all rolled into one. While that could get talked down considering that Lundin isn't as good on the PK, two picks can't be out of the questions. I believe, to the right team, Ludin brings back a 2nd-round pick and a conditional 3rd or 4th round pick.
What should the Wild do?
If I were Chuck Fletcher, I would place a call to the Florida Panthers. GM Dave Tallon is known to covet puck-moving defensmen, and the Panthers have two rookies (Tyson Strachan and Colby Robak) in their starting lineup. The Panthers basically need to win the Southeast to have a realistic shot at making the postseason. Package a deal including Zidlicky and Lundin. In return, get a 1st-round pick, a 3rd-round pick, and a high prospect. Denver Pioneer captain Drew Shore would be a welcome addition to the Wild.
I would also hang on to Greg Zanon. The Wild have had health problems all year, and having an insurance policy isn't the worst idea. Zanon's age and limited skating makes him the least valuable of the three defenders. He can stay and insure that the Wild blueline doesn't completely fall apart.
Your turn, Wilderness. Angry fan bias aside, what do you see as the market value for the extra blueliners the Wild are carrying? Who (if anyone) bites on the guys the Wild can deal away? Aren't you glad that the trade deadline has artificially inflated value?
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The time to sell is now
Until a couple weeks ago, there was still a legitimate hope we could make the playoffs. Now, it’d be a festivus miracle if we did. Sell Zidlicky without a doubt. The only problem is his contract, but lowering the price a little might help. A 2nd and a prospect would be nice I think. Just getting rid of him will be good, addition by subtraction.
Fair analysis
I feel strong about getting something for Zanon, too. Unless you plan to bring him back next year? Even then. Call up an ECHLer to play D if you have to. College free agents will be hitting the market in a few weeks, too. I mean, why not, right?
Being from Minnesota, it would be rude to put something clever here.
I think Stoner’s injury forces Fletcher to keep one of the three, and since Zanon fetches the least in returns, he probably stays.
Also, I think starts next season out on the wrong foot by having so many young defensmen on the blueline. The Wild had to break in 4 relative rookies this year, and the results were about what you would expect. Adding another young blueliner next year probably means the season is shot from the beginning, so I wouldn’t be looking to the ECHL or NCAA for answers on the blueline.
You know you're a Wild fan if Spam Whoopie Gerald-buns comes up in conversation
Mikael Granlund = Suomi Savior
Brad Hunt from BSU might be worth a look
He’s a PPQB, but he’s got a hard, accurate shot and plays a smart game. Skating will probably be his biggest question mark, but he didn’t look too bad on the big ice last weekend against the Gophs.
He’s a ppqb, at the college level of course, is what I wanted to say. Not sure why it didn’t show up that way.
I thought he was 6’, but hockeydb says he’s only 5’9. Probably not big enough to not be an above average skater.
He's not going to play in the NHL.
Good college player but that is all. I’ve seen almost all the BSU home games over the last 8 years too so I’ve seen enough of him.
Hmm...
A 1st, 3rd and Kyle Rau or Nick Bjugstad for Zidlicky and Lundin…I likes it!
Proud Sioux Falls Stampede Season Ticket Holder and #1 Nate Prosser Fan! Go Wild!
Rau is a novelty player who I don’t see having an NHL career. How many 5’8" forwards do you see playing in the NHL? At some point, his lack of size is going to catch up with him.
Bujugstad is probably a little too high. Drew Shore is still projected to play top-6 while not asking too much from Florida to kill the deal. In theory a 1st, a 3rd, and Bjugstad is really two 1st-round picks and a 3rd. That’s pretty steep.
You know you're a Wild fan if Spam Whoopie Gerald-buns comes up in conversation
Mikael Granlund = Suomi Savior
Quinton Howden?
Is he too high of a prospect to ask for in return? Hockeys future has him listed as Florida’s 4th best prospect, and as a defensively responsible, fast, scoring winger. One of those would be nice.
1st, 3rd, and Howden for Zids and Lundin?
by J.A.Berty1330 on Feb 19, 2012 1:14 PM CST up reply actions
I also can't really imagine the Panthers taking two defensemen
I'm that ''ignorant dumbass'' who writes with the ''whiny idiot homer'' over at Hockey Wilderness.
Twitter: BubbleWild48
He's only 2" shorter than Granlund.
Look at players like St. Louis and Gerbe, they’re small and they do very well in the NHL. I’m not saying Rau is as talented as St. Louis, but he is a very skilled and talented player. I’ve seen him play first-hand when he was with the Sioux Falls Stampede late last season. The Herd didn’t make it past the Western Conference Finals yet Rau still lead all skaters in scoring at the end of the postseason. I don’t know why, but, to me at least, he’s this generation’s Neal Broten.
If we could get him, a 1st and a 3rd from Florida for Zids and Lundin…that’d be a downright steal by Fletcher. I can’t believe Rau was drafted so late in the first place. Scouts had said if he was a few inches taller he would have been a 1st round pick.
Proud Sioux Falls Stampede Season Ticket Holder and #1 Nate Prosser Fan! Go Wild!
Height is the only comparable between Rau and Granlund, so you’re not winning me over with that argument.
5’8" players are the exception, not the norm. Jordan Schroeder was a star at every level, but his limited size makes it nearly impossible for him to crack the NHL. He won a State Tournament as an 8th grader, set the record for career points for the U20 National Team, and was a college standout. I honestly believe that Schroeder had a much better skill set than Rau, but that didn’t change the fact that it’s physically tough for a guy that small to make it in the NHL when the players are continually getting bigger.
As for size being the hindrance, I would like to know which professional scouts had any comments like that about Rau. Jordan Schroeder was the same size and similar weight, but he went in the 1st round. Rau was ranked 177th among North American skaters for a reason. He’s good, but he’s not considered elite.
You know you're a Wild fan if Spam Whoopie Gerald-buns comes up in conversation
Mikael Granlund = Suomi Savior
Who the heck said he was Granlund?
I’m talking size, not skill though Rau is a skilled player. Wow.
Proud Sioux Falls Stampede Season Ticket Holder and #1 Nate Prosser Fan! Go Wild!
You were trying to dismiss my size concerns with Rau by saying “he’s only 2” shorter than Granlund".
You know you're a Wild fan if Spam Whoopie Gerald-buns comes up in conversation
Mikael Granlund = Suomi Savior
The reference was to height ONLY.
You read too much into that.
Proud Sioux Falls Stampede Season Ticket Holder and #1 Nate Prosser Fan! Go Wild!
Right..
I think my exact words were:
You were trying to dismiss my size concerns with Rau by saying "he’s only 2" shorter than Granlund".
I would love an explanation as to how that’s reading too much into it.
You know you're a Wild fan if Spam Whoopie Gerald-buns comes up in conversation
Mikael Granlund = Suomi Savior
Rau is offensive wiz in a college system that doesn't play d
Bjugstad is the way to go. He’s big and his game looks like it will transfer well. Although I doubt the panthers would part with him at all, much less a trade involving Zidicky.
Don't know what I'm fighting for, but I know what I'm fighting against
by PUTTINxONxTHExFOIL on Feb 20, 2012 12:25 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Zids
He isn’t going anywhere until the off-season, unless someone overpays by Fletcher’s standard for what he is worth. There will be more opportunity to trade him elsewhere in the off-season than right now which will give us a better chance of receiving better value for him. The risk is of course Zids going bonkers if he is not traded this season and completely destroying all value. Even though he has made things difficult so far I think he deals with everything respectfully the rest of the way.
If we can get some second rounders out of Zanon or Lundin I would be happy.
by grumble_grumble on Feb 19, 2012 2:28 PM CST reply actions
I think Pittsburgh could use some defensive-defensemen as well.
Anyone notice how brutal Paul Martin has been for them this year? They missed out on Grossman and Gill, I think they might have an interest in Zanon. Frankly, Nashville might have some interest in Zanon as well. Florida or the Rangers would be a good spot for Zids, I don’t see the NHL signing off on him going to NJ. He might accept a deal to anywhere right now as well. I don’t think a second rounder plus a later pick for either Zanon or Lundin is out of the question, the market has been set for players like them. It would be nice to see another puck-moving defenseman traded before Zids, Kubina did not set the market very high, but as Jesse pointed out, the Leafs got a load for Kaberle last year and I don’t think a first and a decent prospect is out of the question for Zids right now. If not now, the draft may give us similar or even better deals.
The best market for Zidlicky is
definitely at the trade deadline, not the draft. A functioning PP can help make a playoff run, and you pay to fix that problem late in the season when you have to go with what you can get. A team will look to FA or for a better trade to answer that question in the off season.
by Krotz the Wall on Feb 20, 2012 1:54 PM CST up reply actions



















