Noon Number (November 11th): 11

Hannah Foslien

Today's Noon Number deals with shooting percentage regression in relation to the Minnesota Wild's goalscorers.

Jason Pominville, Justin Fontaine and Zach Parise have been finding the back of the net more frequently than any other Wild players so far this season. Pominville has 11 goals, Parise has 8 and Fontaine has 6. After that, it's Niederreiter, Brodin and Cooke with 3 each, Koivu, Granlund, Brodziak and Heatley with 2 each, and Spurgeon, Dumba, Mitchell and Konopka who each have 1.

Let's see how sustainable, or unsustainable, some of these rates are....

Hotter Than Hell

PLAYER

GP

G

SHOTS

SHOTS MISSED

SHOTS BLOCKED

SH%

SH% (2011-13)

Jason Pominville

18

11

57

19

23

19.3%

13.23% / 353

Zach Parise

18

8

79

10

19

10.1%

10.25% / 475

Justin Fontaine

18

6

31

13

8

19.4%

14.09% / 298

  • Pominville is attempting shots at a pretty good rate, though not getting as many on target as Parise, and is scoring on nearly 20% of them. His 19.3% shooting percentage is almost 6% higher than his rate over the last two year, which was a not-too-shabby 13.23%.
  • Parise, playing on the puck possession-dominant Koivu line, is generating a lot of shot attempts and, in partcular, shots on goal. This has resulted in 8 goals for him so far. His Sh% is actually just below his rate over the last two years.
  • Fontaine has played on every line from the 1st, with Koivu, to the 4th, with Konopka, this season and has generated a reasonable amount of shots considering. His Sh% over the last two years is 14.09%, but, it's important to note that he spent the last two years in the AHL, so even though that is a good figure and proves he can shoot, he probably would shoot at a lower rate against NHL-level goaltending over the same time period. He is shooting at nearly 20% so far this year, which is almost 6 percent higher than his AHL average from the last two years.
  • Pominville's shooting percentage will regress, but he has proven to be a very talented shooter at NHL level and will generate a large amount of shot attempts and should still maintain a good rate somewhere around 12%-14%.
  • Fontaine is probably going to fall on lean times pretty soon as his Sh% is simply not sustainable. His true talent level is closer to the 14.09% he posted in the AHL over the last 2 years, or, more likely, slightly below that.


Cold As Ice

PLAYER

GP

G

SHOTS

SHOTS MISSED

SHOTS BLOCKED

SH%

SH% (2011-13)

Dany Heatley

18

2

31

15

17

6.5%

11.7% / 321

Mikko Koivu

18

2

44

27

18

4.5%

9% / 256

Jared Spurgeon

18

1

26

19

18

3.8%

5.4% / 159

  • Heatley is generating a decent amount of shots on goal this year, and is only shooting 6.5%, a big step down from his average over the last couple of years. Now, he is declining, but it still shouldn't be that low.
  • Koivu has been snakebitten this season, and is a strong candidate to go on a goalscoring tear soon when his shooting percentage progresses to the mean.
  • Spurgeon is an odd one because he is still in the early part of his career. His shooting percentage over the last two years is 5.4%, but I would say is talent level is slightly higher than that, as his offensive abilities have improved dramatically since 2011-12.
  • With Heatley on the 4th line for the foreseeable future, I don't expect him to continue generating shots at a high rate, but his goalscoring should improve over the course of the year as I highly doubt 6.5% is a sustainable rate for a talented shooter like Heatley.


Further Reading

There's been plenty of material written and studies undertaken based around the topic of shooting percentage regression. Below I have listed a couple of good articles, but there's more to be found through Google if you still want to know more.

Follow me on Twitter for more stats talk and hockey opinions. Don't forget to leave a comment in the comments section here.

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