Noon Number (November 6th): 102.6

PDO-ing ain't easy. - Hannah Foslien

Now that the new season is a little less new, let's take a look at the PDO rankings at a team level to see who is overachieving and who is underachieving.

I'm not gonna go into a long-winded description and explanation of PDO at this point as I've gone over it a few times in previous articles. For some top quality info about PDO, from the basics to the nitty-gritty, read these articles:

-Eyes On The Prize: Fancy Stat Summer School-PDO

-Pension Plan Puppets: Intro To Advanced Statistics-PDO

-Arctic Ice Hockey: PDO-If you were going to understand just one NHL statistic


-Here are the PDO ranking so far this season, featuring each team's standings position, Fenwick For% at 5v5 Close, 5v5 Sh%/Sv% and 5v5 PDO.

TEAM

POS

FENCLOSE%

SH%

SV%

PDO

Anaheim Ducks

1st

54.2%

11.4%

93.2%

104.5

Colorado Avalanche

2nd

50.5%

8.9%

95.3%

104.2

Boston Bruins

14th

50.7%

8.2%

95.1%

103.3

Toronto Maple Leafs

11th

41.2%

9.5%

93.8%

103.3

St.Louis Blues

9th

53.8%

10.1%

93.1%

103.2

Minnesota Wild

8th

55.8%

7.6%

95.1%

102.6

San Jose Sharks

3rd

55.6%

9.4%

92.6%

102.0

Ottawa Senators

21st

48.3%

9.2%

92.8%

102.0

Phoenix Coyotes

4th

50.4%

9.6%

92.3%

101.9

Tampa Bay Lightning

10th

48.1%

9.6%

91.5%

101.1

Chicago Blackhawks

6th

57.6%

8.9%

92.0%

101.0

Montreal Canadiens

15th

50.8%

6.7%

94.2%

100.9

Pittsburgh Penguins

5th

57.6%

8.3%

92.5%

100.8

Vancouver Canucks

7th

52.6%

8.4%

92.0%

100.5

Detroit Red Wings

12th

50.2%

7.5%

92.9%

100.3

Washington Capitals

17th

46.0%

8.9%

91.4%

100.3

Dallas Stars

18th

52.5%

8.1%

92.1%

100.2

New York Islanders

19th

48.3%

8.7%

90.6%

99.3

Calgary Flames

20th

49.1%

8.3%

90.0%

98.3

Winnipeg Jets

22nd

47.2%

6.0%

92.2%

98.1

Buffalo Sabres

30th

39.2%

6.6%

91.5%

98.1

Columbus Blue Jackets

25th

46.7%

6.4%

91.7%

98.1

Nashville Predators

16th

50.9%

5.6%

92.3%

97.8

Carolina Hurricanes

23rd

46.0%

5.2%

92.4%

97.7

Edmonton Oilers

28th

45.1%

8.7%

88.9%

97.6

Philadelphia Flyers

29th

46.6%

5.0%

92.5%

97.5

Los Angeles Kings

13th

56.7%

5.5%

91.6%

97.0

Florida Panthers

27th

48.0%

6.5%

89.7%

96.3

New York Rangers

24th

49.6%

4.3%

91.5%

95.8

New Jersey Devils

26th

51.4%

5.8%

90.0%

95.7

MEAN=7.6%

MEAN=92.22%

  • Right now the Ducks and the Avs are the clear over-acheivers of the early part of the season. The Avs have an unsustaibably high Sv%, while the Ducks are shooting at well over 11%, which can't last. Both are good puck possession teams, and the Ducks have a lot of key players coming back from injuries, so, while I think they both will be in the playoffs shake-down at the end of the year, the Ducks look to be more likely to finish higher in the standings.
  • The Leafs stand out at the top of the list with their terrible FenClose%. They're certainly overachieving and are probably the most-likely candidate for a messy tumble down the standings as the year goes on.
  • The Devils are last in PDO, and, while I do think they're under-acheving (look at that healthy FenClose%) they probably won't ever be able to get their PDO up to 1000 because of their dramaticlack of NHL shooting talent, and shakey goaltending. They could help themselves out if they give Corey Schneider the starting job for the rest of the year, but, they really really need someone to fill the void Ilya Kovalchuk left.
  • The New York Rangers and the Los Angeles Kings should sky-rocket up the standings once their percentages begin the correct themselves. The Rags have been badly affected by injuries to key players such as Rick Nash, Henrik Lundqvist, Carl Hagelin and Ryan Callahan, so having them back will change their fortunes dramatically.
  • I'd imagine the Sabres and Flames are right where they should be in terms of PDO considering the unusual lack of NHL talent on their respective rosters.
  • The Wild are right on the league average in Sh% after starting the year shooting at around 4% for a couple of weeks. Their Sv% is due for some regression, but I wouldn't expect any dramatic return to Earth for the Wild. That excellent 55.8% FenClose rating is a testament to how dominant this team is at 5v5.
  • The Wild's next opponent, the Washington Capitals, are just above the 1000 mark in PDO and are 17th in the standings. Aside from a dynamite powerplay, that team appears to be pretty bad and I would hope the Wild can go and school them on their home ice on Friday.
  • What the hell is going on with the Senators?


Okay, that's your PDO round-up, I'll do this again in a month of so to see if any outliers remain.


Follow me on Twitter for more hockey thoughts and ramblings. Leave your own take in the comments section.


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