Fancy Stats

Is The Minnesota Wild's Low ES Sh% A Result Of Inaccurate Shooting?

The Wild seem to be missing the net with a large amount of their shots. Is this why their ES Sh% is so bad? How do they compare to the rest of the league in that regard? I have set-out to answer these very questions and more.

By GerDevine Oct 21, 2013, 10:00am CDT

/ new

As you surely know by now, the Wild have been dominating so far this year in terms of puck possession numbers but are not getting the results they probably deserve due to an incredibly low Even-Strength Shooting Percentage. History tells us that Shooting percentage regresses to the mean over the course of a season, so I'm not particularly worried about that, but the lack of goals has made a lot of Wild fans very aggravated and tetchy. I've already discussed the Shot Quality question which has come-up several times, but an interesting thing that a lot of people have mentioned is the fact that the Wild appear to be missing an astronomical amount of shots, which could be why their shooting percentage is so low, as opposed to it being because they keep running into good goaltending and/or bad luck.

I decided to look into this and see if the numbers reveal anything about the Wild' shooting accuracy. I couldn't find any good database that breaks down shot attempts into goals, shots on goal and missed shots at a team level, so I took each team's Fenwick For (goals + shots on goal + missed shots) total and subtracted the goals and shots on goal to leave me with the total "missed shots".

In the following tables I have listed every NHL team with the amount of games they have played, their total number of Fenwick events, the type of event and the percentage of the total Fenwick For number that event makes-up. The chart is arranged by the percentage of Fenwick events, highest to lowest.

-I have compiled the data into 3 tables; one for goals, one for shots saved and one for missed shots:

* the data doesn't include Sunday's games.

Shots Resulting In Goals

TEAM	GAMES	FENWICK FOR	GOALS	% OF FENWICK EVENTS
ANA	7	230	20	8.955%	*1^st*
S.J	8	319	24	7.348%	*2^nd*
T.B	8	179	13	7.216%	*3^rd*
STL	7	230	17	6.701%	*4^th*
CGY	7	217	14	6.481%	*5^th*
TOR	9	239	15	6.276%	*6^th*
COL	8	244	15	6.098%	*7^th*
PHX	9	314	19	5.923%	*8^th*
WPG	8	250	13	5.714%	*9^th*
VAN	9	295	18	5.442%	*10^th*
BOS	7	242	14	5.350%	*11^th*
NYI	8	226	16	5.310%	*12^th*
PIT	8	265	19	5.283%	*13^th*
EDM	9	229	17	5.24%	*14^th*
DAL	7	221	11	4.977%	*15^th*
DET	9	290	15	4.828%	*16^th*
CAR	9	295	16	4.746%	*17^th*
OTT	8	275	16	4.364%	*18^th*
N.J	8	238	14	4.237%	*19^th*
CHI	8	278	15	3.957%	*20^th*
MTL	8	280	14	3.957%	*21^st*
WSH	8	261	10	3.831%	*22^nd*
CBJ	7	230	9	3.804%	*23^rd*
FLA	9	251	13	3.543%	*24^th*
L.A	9	302	11	3.311%	*25^th*
NSH	8	259	10	3.101%	*26^th*
BUF	10	269	9	2.974%	*27^th*
PHI	8	240	8	2.954%	*28^th*
MIN	9	275	8	2.920%	*29^th*
NYR	7	185	5	2.427%	*30^th*

Unsurprisingly, the Wild rank near the bottom in goals per Fenwick event. They finished 29th overall, scoring on 2.920% of their Fenwick attempts, with only the New York Rangers posting a worse percentage.

Shots That Were Saved

TEAM	GAMES	FENWICK FOR	SAVED SHOTS	% OF FENWICK EVENTS
CBJ	6	184	174	94.565%	*1^st*
STL	7	194	155	79.897%	*2^nd*
ANA	7	201	155	77.114%	*3^rd*
PHX	8	287	208	72.474%	*4^th*
BUF	9	269	193	71.747%	*5^th*
NSH	7	258	185	71.705%	*6^th*
COL	2	246	175	71.138%	*7^th*
NYI	7	226	160	70.796%	*8^th*
CGY	6	216	150	69.444%	*9^th*
WSH	7	261	181	69.349%	*10^th*
CHI	7	278	192	69.065%	*11^th*
DET	8	290	200	68.966%	*12^th*
VAN	8	294	201	68.367%	*13^th*
PIT	7	265	181	68.302%	*14^th*
N.J	7	236	160	67.797%	*15^th*
MIN	8	274	184	67.153%	*16^th*
FLA	8	254	170	66.929%	*17^th*
TOR	8	239	158	66.109%	*18^th*
EDM	8	227	150	66.079%	*19^th*
MTL	7	278	183	65.827%	*20^th*
CAR	8	295	194	65.762%	*21^st*
BOS	6	243	159	65.432%	*22^nd*
DAL	6	221	142	64.253%	*23^rd*
L.A	8	302	191	63.245%	*24^th*
WPG	8	250	158	63.200%	*25^th*
OTT	7	275	173	62.909%	*26^th*
S.J	7	313	194	61.980%	*27^th*
PHI	8	240	147	61.25%	*28^th*
T.B	7	194	115	59.278%	*29^th*
NYR	6	206	119	57.767%	*30^th*

The Wild are middle-of-the-pack in terms of percentage of Fenwick for attempts saved, with 67.153%, 16th overall.

Shots That Missed The Net

TEAM	GAMES	FENWICK FOR	MISSED SHOTS	% OF FENWICK EVENTS
PHI	8	240	85	35.417%	*1^st*
L.A	8	302	100	33.113%	*2^nd*
S.J	7	313	101	32.268%	*3^rd*
WPG	8	250	79	31.600%	*4^th*
OTT	7	275	86	31.273%	*5^th*
DAL	6	221	68	30.769%	*6^th*
PHX	8	287	87	30.314%	*7^th*
MIN	8	274	83	30.230%	*8^th*
MTL	7	278	83	29.856%	*9^th*
NYR	6	206	61	29.612%	*10^th*
CAR	8	295	85	28.814%	*11^th*
BOS	6	243	69	28.360%	*12^th*
TOR	8	239	66	27.615%	*13^th*
ANA	7	201	55	27.363%	*14^th*
EDM	8	227	62	27.313%	*15^th*
N.J	7	236	64	27.119%	*16^th*
WSH	7	261	70	26.820%	*17^th*
FLA	8	254	68	26.771%	*18^th*
T.B	7	194	51	26.289%	*19^th*
DET	8	290	75	25.862%	*20^th*
VAN	8	294	76	25.850%	*21^st*
CBJ	6	184	47	25.543%	*22^nd*
CHI	7	278	71	25.540%	*23^rd*
BUF	9	269	67	24.907%	*24^th*
NSH	7	258	64	24.806%	*25^th*
CGY	6	216	53	24.537%	*26^th*
PIT	7	265	65	24.528%	*27^th*
STL	7	194	47	24.227%	*28^th*
NYI	7	226	50	22.124%	*29^th*
COL	2	246	54	21.951%	*30^th*

The above table shows that the Wild had the 8th highest percentage of missed shots, with off-target attempts accounting for 30.230% of their total Fenwick events for.

-Here are those numbers illustrated in a pie chart, along with a separate chart showing the league average percentages:

-Here are the differences shown more clearly:

As you can see from the graphs above, the Wild aren't too far from the mean in all statistics. They're just below the average goals scored, and slightly above the average shots saved and shots missed.

-To get a better idea of the effect of missing a lot of shots, here are the top 10 teams in % of Missed Shots, plus the Wild, with their position in the league standings, FenClose% and Sh% . This should give an idea of how missing shots relates to success:

TEAM	% FF MISSED	LEAGUE POSITION	FENCLOSE %	ES Sh%
FLYERS	35.417	30^th	45.8%	5.2%
KINGS	33.113%	9^th	52.4%	5.4%
SHARKS	32.268%	1^st	60.7%	11.0%
JETS	31.600%	21^st	44.0%	6.9%
SENATORS	31.273%	19^th	48.9%	8.5%
STARS	30.769%	24^th	51.7%	7.4%
COYOTES	30.314%	8^th	56.0%	8.4%
WILD	30.230%	17^th	59.6%	4.2%
CANADIENS	29.856%	15^th	53.1%	7.1%
RANGERS	29.612%	28^th	42.3%	4.0%
HURRICANES	28.814%	12^th	45.2%	7.6%

-Average FF% Missed: 31.206%

-Average League Position: 16.727272

-Average FenClose%: 50.881818%

-Average Sh%: 6.8818181%

Looking at these numbers, there isn't any strong correlation between percentage of missed shots and success. For example, the Flyers have the highest percentage of missed shots, and are bottom of the league standings, while the Sharks, who have the 3rd highest percentage are the best team in the league so far. The average FenClose% among the top 11 missed shot teams is just over 50%, so there is no major increase or decrease. The 7 teams with a higher percentage of missed shots than the Wild all have higher ES Sh%.

So, in conclusion, missing the net a lot doesn't necessarily correlate with not being able to score goals. The Sharks and others seem to be able to miss a lot of shots and still find the net on a regular basis. As I have said before, the Wild's inability to score is because of the amount of shots they take that are being saved, not the ones that are missing the net. This brings us full circle to the shot quality debate. If you think that the lack of goals is because they aren't getting the right kind of shots from the high percentage areas, then feel free to study the Wild's shooting this year compared the the rest of the league in terms of shot type and location and present your results, because, to my eye, they don't seem to be doing a whole lot different.

In every game this year there have been many chances that could have ended up as goals but instead were saved. There's only so much players can do. Sure you can always get a clearer shot at goal, but defenders in this league tend to make it as difficult as possible and the route to consistent goalscoring has been shown to be to direct as many shots at the net as possible. If the Wild continue to do this, the goals will come. I know everyone is impatient and sick of hearing about how things will be good later on, but you've gotta keep calm and let the team get deeper into the season.

Follow me on Twitter for more hockey-ness.