:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/23569307/450638105.0.jpg)
Josh Harding has been an amazing story this year; overcoming a career-threatening MS diagnosis which ruined his 2013 campaign, to post the best goaltending numbers in the NHL through the first 20-odd games of the 2013-2014 season. His 5v5 save percentage has been hovering between 96% and 97%, which is, as much as I hate to say it, completely unsustainable. Any Wild fan with a brain knows this, so the major question is: will the regression be slow and steady, or will Harding come rapidly crashing back to Earth? Last night's game in Montreal knocked his percentage down a bit and made it look a little bit more normal.
I'm not saying I don't think Harding is capable of finishing the year as one of the best, if not the best, goalie in the league, stats-wise, but his numbers are almost certainly going to drop-off, which makes me wonder how much they will regress, and how quickly.
|
Josh Harding |
||
|
TIME PERIOD |
MINUTES PLAYED |
5v5 Sv% |
|
2007-2013 |
4325:11 |
91.87% |
|
2013-2014 |
746:12 |
95.7% |
That's one hell of an improvement.
*
-Here's a look at the top-5 ranked goalies in terms of 5v5 Sv% each season from 2007-08 to 2012-13. This should give you an idea of the kind of numbers the cream of the crop put-up each year:
2007-2008
|
5v5 Sv% Leaders: 2007-2008 (1000+ Minutes) |
|||
|
Rank |
GOALIE |
MINUTES PLAYED |
5v5 Sv% |
|
1st |
Ty Conklin |
1356:35 |
93.94% |
|
2nd |
JS Giguere |
2286:43 |
93.93% |
|
3rd |
Marc-Andre Fleury |
1312:07 |
93.72% |
|
4th |
Tim Thomas |
2515:58 |
93.62% |
|
5th |
Dan Ellis |
1623:10 |
93.16% |
Mean=93.668%
*
2008-2009
|
5v5 Sv% Leaders: 2008-2009 (1000+ Minutes) |
|||
|
Rank |
GOALIE |
MINUTES PLAYED |
5v5 Sv% |
|
1st |
Tim Thomas |
2457:58 |
94.44% |
|
2nd |
Roberto Luongo |
2242:56 |
93.78% |
|
3rd |
Thomas Vokoun |
2560:33 |
93.56% |
|
4th |
Martin Brodeur |
1336:14 |
93.51% |
|
5th |
Nikolai Khabibulin |
1812:45 |
93.48% |
Mean=93.554%
*
2009-2010
|
5v5 Sv% Leaders: 2009-2010 (1000+ Minutes) |
|||
|
Rank |
GOALIE |
MINUTES PLAYED |
5v5 Sv% |
|
1st |
Thomas Vokoun |
2837:43 |
93.65% |
|
2nd |
Tukka Rask |
2000:42 |
93.63% |
|
3rd |
Jaroslav Halak |
2052:36 |
93.48% |
|
4th |
Semyon Varlamov |
1179:20 |
93.27% |
|
5th |
Jonas Hiller |
2536.13 |
93.23% |
Mean=93.452%
*
2010-2011
|
5v5 Sv% Leaders: 2010-2011 (1000+ Minutes) |
|||
|
Rank |
GOALIE |
MINUTES PLAYED |
5v5 Sv% |
|
1st |
Tim Thomas |
2671:38 |
94.92% |
|
2nd |
Semyon Varlamov |
1187:13 |
93.70% |
|
3rd |
Pekka Rinne |
2951:56 |
93.50% |
|
4th |
Roberto Luongo |
2747:41 |
93.40% |
|
5th |
Illya Bryzgalov |
3142:00 |
93.32% |
Mean=93.768%
*
2011-2012
|
5v5 Sv% Leaders: 2011-2012 (1000+ Minutes) |
|||
|
Rank |
GOALIE |
MINUTES PLAYED |
5v5 Sv% |
|
1st |
Brian Elliott |
1729:00 |
94.11% |
|
2nd |
Jaroslav Halak |
2123:44 |
93.74% |
|
3rd |
Mike Smith |
3106:44 |
93.67% |
|
4th |
Cory Schneider |
1406:25 |
93.41% |
|
5th |
Jonathan Quick |
3124:03 |
93.40% |
Mean=93.666%
*
2012-2013
|
5v5 Sv% Leaders: 2012-2013 (1000+ Minutes) |
|||
|
Rank |
GOALIE |
MINUTES PLAYED |
5v5 Sv% |
|
1st |
Sergei Bobrovsky |
1744:19 |
94.18% |
|
2nd |
Craig Anderson |
1070:27 |
94.03% |
|
3rd |
Jimmy Howard |
1872:09 |
94.00% |
|
4th |
Jonas Hiller |
1178:30 |
93.71% |
|
5th |
Tukka Rask |
1695:15 |
93.65% |
Mean=93.914%
*
2013-2014
|
5v5 Sv% Leaders: 2013-2014 (500+ Minutes) |
|||
|
Rank |
GOALIE |
MINUTES PLAYED |
5v5 Sv% |
|
1st |
Josh Harding |
746:12 |
95.7% |
|
2nd |
Tukka Rask |
869:06 |
95.6% |
|
3rd |
Carey Price |
833:48 |
94.5% |
|
4th |
Steve Mason |
670:06 |
94.2% |
|
5th |
Jonathan Bernier |
612:48 |
94.1% |
Mean=94.82%
*
-Here are the mean Sv% numbers for the top-5 goalies each season from 2007-08 to 2013-14, and Josh Harding's Sv% for each of those seasons plotted on a line graph (the break in Josh's line is due to him not playing in 2010-11):
[Click to enlarge]
Harding is currently saving roughly 2% more 5v5 shots than even the best goalies over the last few years. When that percentage regresses to the mean, where does it stop? Will he finish the year close to his average, which I think is around 92.5% (once you remove the outlier of 2013), or maybe he can keep his Sv% in the 93-94% range and still be up there with the best goalies come the end of the season. It's impossible to predict at this point. The only thing I can say is that he won't be finishing the season with a 5v5 Sv% of 95.70% (as much as I would love that).
The last few years have been pretty rough for Harding. He missed all of 2010-11 with injury, he missed some time in 2012 and then almost all of 2013. That makes me think that his ceiling could be higher than we think, he just hasn't had a long enough run as the starter without getting injured to really show what he can do.
Whatever happens, I just hope he stays healthy and keeps helping the team. I can't imagine a better story than Harding finishing the year in the running for some goalie hardware, which is definitely a possibility. We just need to be prepared for some games and stretches of games where things don't go so smoothly (much like last night in Montreal).
***
Anyway, that's enough rambling from me. Follow me on Twitter for opinions and inanities.