Wild About Numbers: No More Excuses For Niklas Backstrom

Before we get into the stuff about Backstrom, it's worth remembering that evaluating goalies is tricky as they are quite unpredictable, and a lot of other factors can play into their results, but there has been mountains of research and analytical work done to show that Even-Strength Save Percentage (ES Sv%) is the best stat to use for evaluation and that the players in front of a goalie on the ice or the systems teams play don't have all that much of an effect on performance.

As you all know, Backstrom arrived in Minnesota back in 2006-07 from Europe as a 29 year old, which is actually past a goalie's normal prime. While it's not concrete, research has suggested that a goalie's peak performance occurs between 23 and 26, and they rarely improve after that.

He had an amazing first year, leading the league in 5v5 Sv% and recording 5 shut-outs. Between that season and this one, he has had erratic results, to put it mildly.

-Here are each of his seasons along with his 5v5 Sv% and where it ranked among league goaltenders that year:

Niklas Backstrom: 5v5 Sv%
Season	Sv%	Rank (Goalies 750+ Minutes)*
2006-07	93.30%	1st
2007-08	92.54%	21st
2008-09	92.73%	16th
2009-10	91.64%	32nd
2010-11	93.09%	11th
2011-12	93.17%	8th
2012-13	91.69%	35th
2013-14	91.22%	40th

*500+ minutes for 2012/13 & 2013/14

-Here are the above results in graph form:

As you can see, Backstrom's Sv% has been all over the place, but after a couple of good seasons in 2010/11 and 2011/12, it has plummeted in the last 2 years.

One of the main excuses given for his poor performance last season is that due to Josh Harding's MS issues and Darcy Kuemper's lack of experience, Backstrom was run into the ground by the team and as a result, he collapsed down the stretch.

-Here is his rolling 5v5 Sv%, game-by-game from last season:

He started the year pretty consistently, but after that the graph gets very erratic and this trend continues right up to the end of the season.

-To further explore this point, here is last season broken down into 4 parts, along with Backstrom's TOI and 5v5Sv%:

Games	Total TOI	5v5 Sv%
1 to 10	586:24	92.89%
11 to 21	608:24	91.08%
22 to 31	548:36	82.81%
32 to 42	604:48	90.49%

It's clear that he was better in the first half of the season than the second, but his worst period was between games 22 and 31, with his performance actually recovering somewhat down the stretch for the final 11 games of the year.

It's hard to come-up with a definite answer as to whether or not it was an extraordinary workload that was to blame for Backstrom's poor season but, for comparison's sake, let's see how his TOI stacked-up against the minutes played by other starters in the league.

-Here are the top 10 goalies in terms of TOI last season:

	Player	Pos.	Team	GP	TOI	Sv%
1	Ondrej Pavelec	G	Jets	44	2066.7	91.30%
2	Henrik Lundqvist	G	Rangers	43	2046.1	93.60%
3	Antti Niemi	G	Sharks	43	2034	93.00%
4	Evgeni Nabokov	G	Islanders	41	1998	91.60%
5	Pekka Rinne	G	Predators	43	1978.2	92.80%
6	Niklas Backstrom	G	Wild	42	1873.4	91.40%
7	Jimmy Howard	G	Red Wings	42	1872	94.00%
8	Ilya Bryzgalov	G	Flyers	40	1751	91.00%
9	Sergei Bobrovsky	G	Blue Jackets	38	1744.2	94.10%
10	Ryan Miller	G	Sabres	40	1744.1	92.30%

Five goalies played the same amount of games as Backstrom, and five played more minutes. There appears to be no trend in terms of the effect of a heavy workload. Pavelec, Nabokov, Bryzgalov and Backstrom were bad, but Lundqvist, Rinne, Howard, Miller, Bobrovsky and Niemi were very good, so it seems that results were down to talent more than workload.

This year Backstrom has been somewhat unlucky. The Wild's water-tight defensive play seems to desert them only when Backstrom is in net, so he has faced a lot more shots than Josh Harding. Are his poor numbers this year a result of being shelled?

-Here are NHL goalies with 500+ minutes player this year ranked by Shots Against Per 20 Minutes:

Rank	Name	Team	TOI	SA20	5v5 Sv%
1	James Reimer	Toronto	734:26:00	12.009	93.42
2	Jonathan Bernier	Toronto	1301:31:00	11.371	93.38
3	Ryan Miller	Buffalo	1404:13:00	11.366	92.61
4	Robin Lehner	Ottawa	780:33:00	11.172	92.2
5	Craig Anderson	Ottawa	1234:58:00	11.045	91.79
6	Braden Holtby	Washington	1214:21:00	10.87	92.42
7	Steve Mason	Philadelphia	1397:58:00	10.673	92.9
8	Mike Smith	Phoenix	1554:13:00	10.41	92.46
9	Carter Hutton	Nashville	722:11:00	10.385	90.4
10	Justin Peters	Carolina	945:56:00	10.36	92.65
11	Devan Dubnyk	Edmonton	1198:42:00	10.345	90.32
12	Semyon Varlamov	Colorado	1495:55:00	10.321	94.04
13	Kevin Poulin	NY_Islanders	781:01:00	10.294	90.3
14	Ondrej Pavelec	Winnipeg	1467:41:00	10.22	90.93
15	Carey Price	Montreal	1556:54:00	10.148	93.29
16	Evgeni Nabokov	NY_Islanders	1082:06:00	10.129	91.79
17	Jimmy Howard	Detroit	1085:18:00	9.914	91.82
18	Reto Berra	Calgary	866:24:00	9.834	91.55
19	Cam Ward	Carolina	830:31:00	9.801	91.65
20	Sergei Bobrovsky	Columbus	1030:44:00	9.799	92.28
21	Henrik Lundqvist	NY_Rangers	1338:04:00	9.79	91.3
22	Roberto Luongo	Vancouver	1480:18:00	9.728	92.64
23	Niklas Backstrom	Minnesota	727:14:00	9.708	91.22
24	Tuuka Rask	Boston	1571:21:00	9.699	94.36

So there are 22 goalies facing shots more regularly than Backstrom. Some of the best-perfoming goalies in the league this year have faced among the highest shot totals. James Reimer and Jonathan Bernier of the Toronto Maple Leafs are notable in that regard, as is Ryan Miller of the hapless Buffalo Sabres.

You could say age is a factor, with the younger goalies having more stamina and therefore being better equipped to face more shots, but the likes of Miller and Roberto Luongo are facing a higher rate of shots against than Backstrom and doing just fine in spite of their age.

*

The bottom line here is that Backstrom struggled last year, and has continued in a similar vein this season. After signing a new 3-year contract in the offseason, he needs to turn things around fast if he is to prove to the organisation that they didn't make a mistake by keeping him around. With the huge question marks surrounding Josh Harding's long-term health and the need for young goalie prospects Darcy Kuemper and Johan Gustafsson to be developed slowly and not rushed into action, it's vitally important that the Wild have someone who they can rely on to carry the load in net.

There's every chance that Backstrom can get out of this funk and return to something close to his 2011/12 performance, but with his age, and around 60 games of mediocrity in his recent history, the odds are against him.

With Josh Harding now on IR, there's no more time for excuses; Backstrom just needs to get it done.

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