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The most predictive stat to use for team success is "Score Adjusted Fenwick". It's proven to be marginally more predictive than Fenwick Close and Fenwick Tied after 60 games and much more predictive early in the season.
-Here is every NHL team ranked by their Score Adjusted Fenwick so far this season:
|
|
Team |
GP |
S-A FF% |
|
1 |
Chicago Blackhawks |
72 |
56.20% |
|
2 |
Los Angeles Kings |
72 |
56.20% |
|
3 |
San Jose Sharks |
73 |
55.80% |
|
4 |
Boston Bruins |
72 |
54.90% |
|
5 |
St. Louis Blues |
71 |
54.10% |
|
6 |
New Jersey Devils |
72 |
53.20% |
|
7 |
New York Rangers |
73 |
52.30% |
|
8 |
Tampa Bay Lightning |
72 |
51.50% |
|
9 |
Detroit Red Wings |
71 |
51.50% |
|
10 |
Dallas Stars |
71 |
51.50% |
|
11 |
Anaheim Ducks |
71 |
51.20% |
|
12 |
Vancouver Canucks |
73 |
51.00% |
|
13 |
Ottawa Senators |
71 |
50.50% |
|
14 |
Columbus Blue Jackets |
71 |
50.30% |
|
15 |
Pittsburgh Penguins |
71 |
50.20% |
|
16 |
Winnipeg Jets |
73 |
50.00% |
|
17 |
Carolina Hurricanes |
71 |
49.50% |
|
18 |
Phoenix Coyotes |
72 |
49.50% |
|
19 |
Philadelphia Flyers |
71 |
49.30% |
|
20 |
Minnesota Wild |
72 |
48.80% |
|
21 |
Nashville Predators |
72 |
48.80% |
|
22 |
Florida Panthers |
72 |
48.80% |
|
23 |
Montréal Canadiens |
73 |
48.40% |
|
24 |
New York Islanders |
71 |
48.20% |
|
25 |
Washington Capitals |
72 |
47.60% |
|
26 |
Calgary Flames |
72 |
47.40% |
|
27 |
Colorado Avalanche |
71 |
47.00% |
|
28 |
Edmonton Oilers |
72 |
43.40% |
|
29 |
Toronto Maple Leafs |
73 |
42.30% |
|
30 |
Buffalo Sabres |
71 |
41.40% |
- You can see that the Wild are hovering just at the top of the bottom 3rd of the rankings thanks to their mid-season puck possession collapse. If you look at FF% Close instead of S-A, the Wild are only 0.20% lower, so there isn't a huge difference.
- If you're wondering about whether or not these rankings are important, I recommend taking a look at the teams who make up the top-5. I think it's tough to argue against them being the 5 best teams in the league this season. Likewise, names like the Sabres, Oiles, Leafs and Flames hover near the bottom of the rankings, which should tell you all you need to know.
|
Team |
Sh% |
Sv% |
PDO |
|
|
1 |
Boston Bruins |
8.60% |
94.10% |
102.6 |
|
2 |
Anaheim Ducks |
9.60% |
92.80% |
102.3 |
|
3 |
St. Louis Blues |
9.40% |
92.60% |
101.9 |
|
4 |
Colorado Avalanche |
8.90% |
92.90% |
101.7 |
|
5 |
Toronto Maple Leafs |
8.50% |
92.80% |
101.3 |
|
6 |
Minnesota Wild |
7.60% |
93.50% |
101.1 |
|
7 |
Tampa Bay Lightning |
8.20% |
92.80% |
101 |
|
8 |
Chicago Blackhawks |
8.70% |
91.80% |
100.5 |
|
9 |
Columbus Blue Jackets |
8.10% |
92.30% |
100.4 |
|
10 |
Philadelphia Flyers |
8.10% |
92.30% |
100.4 |
|
11 |
Pittsburgh Penguins |
8.60% |
91.80% |
100.4 |
|
12 |
Phoenix Coyotes |
7.50% |
92.80% |
100.2 |
|
13 |
Los Angeles Kings |
6.40% |
93.60% |
100 |
|
14 |
Montréal Canadiens |
7.30% |
92.80% |
100 |
|
15 |
San Jose Sharks |
7.40% |
92.60% |
100 |
|
16 |
Washington Capitals |
7.60% |
92.30% |
99.9 |
|
17 |
Detroit Red Wings |
7.80% |
92.00% |
99.8 |
|
18 |
Vancouver Canucks |
7.30% |
92.40% |
99.7 |
|
19 |
Winnipeg Jets |
8.00% |
91.50% |
99.5 |
|
20 |
Dallas Stars |
7.80% |
91.70% |
99.5 |
|
21 |
New York Rangers |
6.70% |
92.70% |
99.4 |
|
22 |
Edmonton Oilers |
8.10% |
91.10% |
99.3 |
|
23 |
Carolina Hurricanes |
6.80% |
92.40% |
99.2 |
|
24 |
Ottawa Senators |
7.50% |
91.70% |
99.1 |
|
25 |
Florida Panthers |
7.60% |
91.20% |
98.8 |
|
26 |
Calgary Flames |
8.00% |
90.70% |
98.6 |
|
27 |
Buffalo Sabres |
6.00% |
92.60% |
98.6 |
|
28 |
New Jersey Devils |
7.60% |
91.00% |
98.6 |
|
29 |
New York Islanders |
7.50% |
90.70% |
98.3 |
|
30 |
Nashville Predators |
7.00% |
90.90% |
97.9 |
- So the Wild, much like the Avs and the Leafs are over-achieving thanks to a high PDO which is almost entirely driven by their extremely high Sv%.
- At the other end of the scale, teams like the New Jersey Devils and, to a lesser extent, the Florida Panthers are underachieving thanks to some percentages.
- Some teams will always be just on the right or wrong side of 1000 because of extreme shooting/goaltending talent or lack thereof.
-Here's a visualization of the Wild's puck possession struggles as the season has gone on just in case you've forgotten:
- It's pretty ugly. The rot started before the injury bug hit, but missing Koivu, Parise and Spurgeon for a lengthy spell definitely slowed down the recovery.
- Things seem to be slowly heading in the right direction lately (as they should, given the talent on this roster now).
|
5v5 FF% |
Home 5v5 FF% |
Road 5v5 FF% |
|||
|
49.0% |
22nd |
51.3% |
15th-T |
46.9% |
26th-T |
- Obviously these numbers don't account for score effects, but you can see that there is a pretty massive gulf between the Wild's performance at home vs on the road.
- Is this a psychological thing? Is it because other teams can counter Mike Yeo's line-matching because they have last change at home? It's hard to know.
|
CF/60 |
FF/60 |
SF/60 |
CA/60 |
FA/60 |
SA/60 |
||||||
|
49.7 |
27th-T |
36.7 |
27th |
26.4 |
27th-T |
52.8 |
9th |
38.8 |
10th |
27.4 |
7th |
- The Wild have struggled to score goals this year when the score is close partly due to a low shooting%, but also because they generate shots at a pretty pathetic rate for a team with the personnel they have. More shot attempts means more scoring chance so it's kind of a thing you should strive for if winning a Stanley Cup is your goal
- On the other hand, the Wild have been really really great at shot suppression.
- All of this suggests that they are being far too conservative and are playing an extremely low-risk brand of hockey. It's great that they limit shots against, but that shouldn't come at the expense of generating offence.
|
|
Team |
FF/60 |
FA/60 |
|
1 |
San Jose Sharks |
47.2 |
38.5 |
|
2 |
Ottawa Senators |
47.1 |
45.7 |
|
3 |
Los Angeles Kings |
46.7 |
35.9 |
|
4 |
New York Rangers |
45.9 |
40.2 |
|
5 |
Dallas Stars |
45.6 |
41.6 |
|
6 |
Boston Bruins |
44.5 |
37.5 |
|
7 |
Chicago Blackhawks |
43 |
34.7 |
|
8 |
Vancouver Canucks |
42.8 |
39 |
|
9 |
Carolina Hurricanes |
42.6 |
45.8 |
|
10 |
Tampa Bay Lightning |
42.1 |
39.4 |
|
11 |
Anaheim Ducks |
42.1 |
41.8 |
|
12 |
Phoenix Coyotes |
42 |
43.2 |
|
13 |
Winnipeg Jets |
41.7 |
43 |
|
14 |
St. Louis Blues |
41 |
36.9 |
|
15 |
New York Islanders |
40.3 |
41.8 |
|
16 |
Montréal Canadiens |
40.1 |
42.7 |
|
17 |
Pittsburgh Penguins |
40 |
39.5 |
|
18 |
Columbus Blue Jackets |
40 |
38.1 |
|
19 |
Florida Panthers |
40 |
41.2 |
|
20 |
Detroit Red Wings |
39.9 |
38.2 |
|
21 |
Washington Capitals |
39.6 |
42.1 |
|
22 |
Philadelphia Flyers |
39.5 |
43.1 |
|
23 |
Nashville Predators |
39 |
38.2 |
|
24 |
Colorado Avalanche |
38.5 |
43.5 |
|
25 |
New Jersey Devils |
37.6 |
32.7 |
|
26 |
Toronto Maple Leafs |
36.8 |
51 |
|
27 |
Minnesota Wild |
36.7 |
38.8 |
|
28 |
Calgary Flames |
36.4 |
40.1 |
|
29 |
Edmonton Oilers |
36.3 |
46.7 |
|
30 |
Buffalo Sabres |
33.8 |
49.1 |
- Look at teams like the Sharks, Kings and Blues, who all suppress shots attempts extremely well but also create them at the other end of the ice. This should be what the Wild are trying to become.
- It's quite depressing to see the company the Wild keep at the bottom of these rankings. That should indicate that this is something that needs to be fixed for next season.
-Finally, here is how the Wild have performed at special teams in the last 3 seasons:
|
PP% 2012 |
PP% 2013 |
PP% 2014 |
PK% 2012 |
PK% 2013 |
PK% 2014 |
||||||
|
15.1% |
27th |
17.9% |
16th |
18.8% |
13th |
82.1% |
15th |
80.7% |
18th |
79.7% |
27th |
- As you can see, under Mike Yeo, the Wild have struggled to establish themselves as a strong PP or PK team.
- The PP has shown signs of life this year but has also cost them dearly at some key moments. Having an natural shooter like Moulson or Vanek in the line up from Game 1 next season should see it continue to improve.
(P.s. I'm gonna be out of town for a few days so I don't think there will be a 'Wild About Numbers' article on Thursday. You'll have to make do with this one until next week.)
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