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Old Prospector: Wild Prospects' NHL Equivalency

Digging through Minnesota Wild prospect production to find their NHLe.

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

The season is underway and we are going to periodically check in with Minnesota Wild prospects to see how their seasons are going. These posts won't be giving a scouting report -- though maybe a bit at times -- so much as providing a NHL equivalency (NHLe) update, a stat created by Gabriel Desjardins years ago.

NHLe is a formula that assumes each player playing in a league outside the NHL would bring just a portion of that production into the NHL. By measuring the offense created by other players who moved from that league to the NHL we can get an equation that creates an average of how offense from a league transfers into the NHL.

For example, this is useful if Pavel Jenys scores 50 goals for the Sudbury Wolves in the OHL this year. That obviously doesn't mean that this is the same as scoring 50 goals in the NHL. NHLe allows us to get an understanding of what the production actually means. It also allows us to compare players across leagues. (How does his 50 OHL goals compare to Kirill Kaprizov's 20 in the KHL?)

So, below you'll find this season's stats so far, NHLe and last season's NHLe for Wild prospects.

A few notes: Most NCAA teams have just started their seasons. Their stats are a little less telling right now and are, at best, misleading when turned into NHLe. The CHL players and the guys playing in the SHL and KHL are probably the most worthwhile to look at right now.

Also, I'm including defensemen against my better judgement. NHLe isn't, in my mind, very useful for defensemen. It's solely measuring scoring. So, for prospects like John Draeger, Carson Soucy or Nolan de Jong, this isn't that useful. They're aren't scoring defensemen like Mike Reilly, Dylan Labbe or Guillaume Gelinas. I'm even wary of how telling this is for scoring defensemen. Keep that in mind. This doesn't judge their defensive play in any way.

League Team Games Played Goals Assists NHLe Last Season's NHLe
Adam Gilmour NCAA / Hockey East Boston College 4 0 1 6.77 19.23
Alex Tuch NCAA / Hockey East Boston College 4 0 3 20.3 20.48
Avery Peterson NCAA / NCHC Nebraska-Omaha 5 0 0 0 13.25
Carson Soucy NCAA / NCHC Minnesota-Duluth 4 0 1 6.15 8.61
Chase Lang WHL Calgary Hitmen 13 2 5 11.48 18.95
Gustav Bouramman OHL Sault Ste Marie Greyhounds 12 1 6 12.3 16.16
Hunter Warner WHL Prince Albert Raiders 12 0 5 8.88 2.67
Joel Eriksson Ek SHL Farjestad BK 13 3 4 24.28 7.96
John Draeger NCAA / Big Ten Michigan State 6 1 1 8.2 3.51
Jordan Greenway NCAA / Hockey East Boston University 3 0 0 0 20,.13
Kirill Kaprizov KHL Metallurg Novokuznetsk 24 7 6 34.65 16.51
Louis Belpedio NCAA / NCHC Miami (OH) University 6 1 3 16.4 11.69
Louis Nanne NCAA / ECAC RPI 5 0 1 4.1 6.61
Mario Lucia NCAA / Hockey East Notre Dame 2 2 2 54.12 19.97
Nicholas Boka NCAA / Big Ten Michigan 3 0 1 8.2 4.43
Nick Seeler NCAA / Big Ten University of Minnesota 4 0 0 0 9.63
Nolan De Jong NCAA / Big Ten Michigan 3 0 0 0 9.63
Pavel Jenys OHL Sudbury Wolves 12 3 3 12.3 17.57
Pontus Sjalin SHL Lulea HF 3 0 0 0 0
Reid Duke WHL Brandon WheatKings 10 9 4 27.72 20.91
Tanner Faith WHL Moose Jaw Warriors 12 2 2 7.11 6.73

Again, it's not a perfect way to look through prospects, but it provides one lens through which to see the prospect group.

The most notable pieces here are the Kirill Kaprizov is playing out of his mind. As an 18-year-old in the KHL, these numbers are outstanding. His 13 points is already the fourth best season by an 18-year-old in the KHL. Number two all time? Vladimir Tarasenko. Below him? Artemi Panarin, Anton Slepyshev, Marko Dano, Valeri Nichushkin, and Nikita Kucherov.

Does that mean Kaprizov will be better than those guys? No. But it's an impressive season he's putting together. He's been an ice time leader at times and is playing power play and penalty kill. He has the potential to be a nice late round steal for the Wild.

Notable the other direction? Pavel Jenys. He's not playing awful, but he was close to playing in the AHL this season and the team has high hopes for him. He's a big center with some real scoring talent. It's a tricky balance, because part of bringing him to the AHL would have been that it'd be nice to pull him away from a team that was terrible last year. The Wolves finished last place in the OHL by a wide margin. They're better this year,  but they're still last in their division and tied for last in the conference. They aren't last league-wide though. So, progress.

Mario Lucia's NHLe looks crazy, but that's just a result of the small sample. Great numbers over two games, but the NHLe means next to nothing there.

Joel Eriksson Ek's pace would put him in the top ten scorers all time U19 in the SHL. That's a group that currently includes Daniel Sedin, Markus Naslund, Henrik Sedin, Elias Lindholm, Magnus Paajarvi, Peter Forsberg, and Nicklas Backstrom. That's a projection, so take it with a grain of salt.

Otherwise, Alex Tuch and Chase Lang are off to a slow start, in terms of production, while Reid Duke is putting up some very gaudy numbers. Though with Duke, I'd also note that he's playing on one of the best teams in all of the CHL. Through 11 games the Brandon Wheat Kings have a goal differential of +32. They haven't yet been outshot either, even in losses, falling below 40 shots only three times all season and allowing a team to reach 30 twice, with the high outside of that in shots against being 24. Their shot differential through those games is +215.

We'll do this again in a few weeks.

NHLe numbers are indebted to Desjardins, Scott Reynolds and Rob Vollman.