clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

The Doob Abides: Putting Dubnyk's Play in Context

New, comments
Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

We all know Devan Dubnyk is on a great run. The question is: just HOW great a run is it? Through 14 games played for the Wild (this is being written before the Calgary game on Wednesday), Doobie has a GAA of 1.71 and a Sv% of .935.

Put in context: his Sv% is tied for 3rd best in the NHL of all goalies who have played 13 games, and his GAA is the best of that same set of goalies. Historically, Doobie is tied for 9th-best Sv% of all goalies who have played more than 13 games in a single season (tied with Craig Anderson of the 2007-8 Panthers and Carey Price this season... he's pretty good too). Of that same set, Doobie's GAA ranks 6th best all-time.

It should be noted- none of those stats are 5v5, and the NHL officially doesn't have those as Doobie's stats, as he played a number of games with the Coyotes.

So we can all agree: Dubnyk is playing well, to say the least. The question now is:

How Sustainable is his Play?

The answer is: not very.

For instance, here is the list of goalies who have sustained a .930 Sv% or better for more than 30 games (from Hockey Reference)

Player

Season

Tm

GP

Brian Elliott

2011-12

STL

38

Tim Thomas

2010-11

BOS

57

Dominik Hasek*

1998-99

BUF

64

Cory Schneider

2011-12

VAN

33

Carey Price

2014-15

MTL

45

Miikka Kiprusoff

2003-04

CGY

38

Dwayne Roloson

2003-04

MIN

48

Tim Thomas

2008-09

BOS

54

Sergei Bobrovsky

2012-13

CBJ

38

Dominik Hasek*

1997-98

BUF

72

Marty Turco

2002-03

DAL

55

Roberto Luongo

2003-04

FLA

72

Tuukka Rask

2009-10

BOS

45

Pekka Rinne

2014-15

NSH

42

Jose Theodore

2001-02

MTL

67

Dominik Hasek*

1994-95

BUF

41

Mike Smith

2011-12

PHX

67

That's a distinguished list, with multiple players appearing two or more times. You might also notice Dwayne at 7th on the list from 2003-04. The likelihood of Doobie maintaining his play is very low, and it would be  a run of rather historic proportions. It is far from impossible, however.

Some More Perspective

Since the trade, Dubnyk's 5v5 Score-Adjusted Sv% is 93.93  (from War on Ice). After also adjusting for shot quality, this jumps to 94.14; good for 7th in the league. Dubnyk has played more games than anyone ahead of him on the list (with the fewest having been played by Ondrej Pavelec and Henrik Lundqvist).

Perhaps it is no coincidence that Dubnyk has faced the lowest shots per 60 of those ahead of him on that list. Because War-on-Ice has broken down stats further than this, we also know that Dubnyk has the 2nd-highest Sv% from high-danger areas (behind only Carey Price). Interestingly, he has also let in the most "low-danger goals"- as well as the 2nd-highest "medium" and "high" danger goals. It's worth noting, however, that of the 7 goalies in question, the only two to have faced a comparable number of shots are Tuukka Rask and Carey Price. Cory Schneider comes close as well, though has faced fewer due to New Jersey's style of play.

As Ben Remington (guest of the most recent podcast) has stated not once but twice, the Wild's play has not been great lately. The Wild will need to step up to give Doobie the best chance possible to maintain his run.

In the meantime, we can enjoy and hope for more of some historically good play by The Doob.