[Wild About Numbers]: Statistical Breakdown Of The Wild's Potential 1st Round Opponents

In 2012/13 the Wild's goal for the season was to make the playoffs and any success on top of that was purely a bonus. They did make the playoffs (just about) and were easily outplayed by the Chicago Blackhawks on their way to a 4-1 series loss. This season, with a talented roster that Chuck Fletcher has painstakingly built over the last few years, making the playoffs was expected and to call this season a success the Wild need to make some noise while they are there and not just provide a team with Cup ambitions some warm-up games before meekly bowing out. Not to say the Wild need to win a round to be happy with their season, but they need to play like a team that belongs there and that might be a Cup contender in the near future.

This is a far more talented roster than the Wild have iced in a long time (maybe ever) with a host of stars (Suter, Parise, Moulson, Koivu, Pominville) supported by good role players (Cooke, Brodziak) and a large group of talented young players, many of whom have stepped up to make big contributions this year (Granlund, Nino, Scandella). Their preseason goaltending worries amounted to nothing as the goaltending (regardless of who has been in net) has been mostly excellent. This is no longer a "just happy to be there" bubble team.

Come playoff time, they need to play like a team that belongs there and that might be a Cup contender in the near future.
Winning a playoff series can be something of a crap-shoot as 7 games is a very small sample and things like a goalie getting hot or a team shooting way above their talent level for a couple of games can be deciding factors. But the Wild's chances of getting out of the 1st round greatly increase or decrease based on who they play against. In this article, I'm going to break down the numbers for each team they could face and see who the Wild might be able to beat and who they are unlikely to stand much of a chance against.

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-Firstly, let's check out the current standings:

• Things are pretty changeable going into the last 2-3 games. Colorado could still catch St.Louis and Chicago aren't certain to finish 3rd either.

• The Ducks have won the Pacific division and San Jose and L.A are locked-in as the 2nd and 3rd seeds respectively.

• The Wild have the 1st Wildcard spot locked up but Dallas and Phoenix are still fighting it out for the other one.

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-So, let's look at some numbers for each of these teams and then I'll break them down individually and assess how they match-up against the Wild [NUMBERS DON'T INCLUDE LAST NIGHT'S GAMES]:

• The above numbers relate to puck possession and puck luck. I've decided to use Score-Adjusted (S-A) Fenwick as the possession stat because data suggests that it is slightly more predictive than Fenwick Tied and Fenwick Close at this stage of the season.

• PDO is EV Sh% and EV Sv% combined and roughly equates to luck. Read more about it here.

• For each stat, I have included the team's percentage as well as where they rank league-wide. Being ranked higher in the "Against" stats means you're better at suppressing shots.

• These stats relate to how well each team generates and suppresses shots at 5v5 in various score situations. We don't just use regular 5v5 because of noise created by score effects

• "Close" means within 1 goal in the 1st or 2nd period and when the score is tied in the 3rd or overtime. "Tied" just means when the score is tied.

• CF/CA stand for Corsi For/Corsi Against. Corsi is shot attempts.

• SF/SA stand for Shots For/Shots Against. Shots means shots on goal.

• The above stats relate to special teams. I have included each team's PP% and PK% as well as stats for how well they generate and suppress shots and shot attempts.

-Based on the stats from the tables above, here is my analysis of each team:

Minnesota Wild

• The Wild are in the bottom third of the league in terms of puck possession and are 6th in PDO, which isn't good. They're not quite the Maple Leafs, but they've certainly ridden the percentages this year. I think their possession numbers are a bit misleading as the team missed Koivu, Parise and Spurgeon for some time this year and they are 3 key players in that respect. The truth is probably somewhere in between their standings position and their Score-Adjusted Fenwick ranking.

• Their very high PDO is driven by their Sv%, which is 3rd highest in the league. Regardless of the injuries the Wild have had in net, they've been fortunate that 3 goalies they have dressed have played way above their heads and essentially put this team in the playoffs.

• The Wild have had very little shooting luck this year, but that evened itself out over the last stretch of the season and they now rank 17th in EV Sh%. Not very high, but still middle-of-the-pack.

Wild Individual Scoring Rates (2000-2014)

A look at who the best EV scorers have been each season since the franchise was founded.

• This team is absolutely terrible at generating shots. The only team worse when the score is tied at 5v5 are the Buffalo Sabres. This needs to be fixed next season if this team is going to compete for the Cup.

• They're pretty good at suppressing shots, but their inability to create offence leads to negative puck possession numbers and some pretty boring hockey.

• Special teams have been an issue of late, with the powerplay's reasonably high ranking mostly coming from early season success. Just like at 5v5, the Wild are bad at generating shots and shot attempts but good at suppressing them.

• Overall, the Wild seem to be an average but unpredictable possession team who are terrible at generating offence but good at suppressing it who have relied heavily on their goaltending to get them into the playoffs. They're unremarkable at special teams.

Anaheim Ducks

• The Ducks have benefited from a very high PDO driven by their Sh% but, to their credit, they are a positive puck possession team.

• They're pretty middle-of-the-pack in terms of suppressing and generating offence at 5v5 with no outstanding strength or weakness.

• Their powerplay has struggled but they do generate shots pretty well so maybe they have been a bit unlucky. Their PK is fairly mediocre.

• Overall, they're a good team who have somewhat overachieved this season.

St.Louis Blues

• The Blues are a team who have dominated in puck possession but also have somewhat overachieved with a very high PDO driven by their Sh%.

• They're pretty decent at generating shots and excellent at suppressing them both at 5v5 and special teams. Their powerplay and penalty kill are both in the top-6.

• Overall, they're an excellent team in all aspects of the game. Even if they have shot above their talent level this year, they are still terrifying.

Colorado Avalanche

• The Avs are quite simply an awful 5v5 hockey team. They are one of the worst possession teams in the league who have enjoyed this amazing season based on the fact that they are riding insane goaltending while also shooting way above their heads.

• For all the talk about their high-powered offence, they generate shots and shot attempts very poorly and aren't good at suppressing them either.

• Their biggest strength that isn't completely luck driven is their #7 ranked powerplay which is a dangerous weapon. Their PK is pretty mediocre.

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So, I think it's pretty clear that the team the Wild stand the best chance of beating is the Colorado Avalanche. The St. Louis Blues are the team to avoid. The Anaheim Ducks are a tough test but would be preferable to the Blues.

Nothing is guaranteed in the playoffs, as I said earlier, it just takes a hot run of shooting or goaltending to carry a team to a series win. That being said, if I had to choose a team to meet in the 1st round that gives my team the best chance of winning, I'm going to pick the terrible puck possession team being carried by PDO every time. The Avalanche's luck will run out eventually but the question is, will the collapse happen during the playoffs or will we have to wait for next season?

One last thing, the Wild don't have a particularly good season series record against any of these 3 teams but data suggests that season series records tend to go out the window when it's playoff time so I wouldn't be concerned about that at all.

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What are your thoughts, Wilderness?

Follow me on Twitter for more hockey talk. Thanks to Extra Skater for all the numbers featured in this article.